Duke Looks To Repeat, But…
Weren’t we here last year?
The similarities between this years team and last years team run deep.
A Duke Blue Devil team trying to figure out exactly who they are.
A struggling Kyle Singler.
A Duke guard on the road to becoming ACC Player of the Year.
Big men who look to rebound first, get the ball back to the perimeter shooters second and score third.
The borderline 1-slash-2 seed.
The embarrassing loss to a Big East team.
The most recent victory over a non-ACC team.
26-2 this year, 24-4 last year.
So does that mean a loss at Virginia Tech is on the horizon, just like last when they lost at Maryland? Could senior Malcolm Delaney pull a Greivis Vasquez and will his team to victory over Duke? It’s a game that Virginia Tech needs to win to solidify their post season resume, so you know they will come out all guns blazing.
There is one glaring difference between this years team and last. And, no, its not Zoubek’s epic beard.
The big difference is last year Duke was led by ‘The Big Three’, this year its been ‘The Big Two’. Just like in math, three is better than two. Three is safer than two as well. How many two-legged stools have you ever sat on? Ones that you bought at IKEA don’t count, those Swedes know how to defy gravity.
This year, the ‘Big Two’ has morphed into the ‘Big One-and-Three-Quarters’. Nolan Smith has been even better than anyone could have hoped, but Singler has hardly played up to his preseason predictions and that ‘third scorer’ that every teams needs, has yet to fully emerge.
Right now, that third scorer role is being filled by Seth Curry, but at different times this year its been Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly and even Mason Plumlee. Curry has proven to be able to come up big in big games (UNC) and has the best overall game for being Duke’s ‘third scorer’, he can spot up or drive to the hoop. It was nice to see Curry come up big in a tough game because Duke is going to need a game like that from one of those guys to make it to Houston.
Without a true third scorer, this years team reminds me of the 2005-06 team. A team with two outstanding players (Redick & Williams) and a bunch of other guys who could score in double digits [Freshmen Josh McRoberts & Greg Paulus; Sophomore DeMarcus Nelson; Seniors Sean Dockery & Lee Melchionni], but didn’t do it often enough to be called a ‘third scorer.’
Those other guys combined for 35.3 points in 2005-06. This year, those other guys [Curry, Dawkins, Kelly & both Plumlees] combine for 36.5.
You remember that team, don’t you? Number one for the majority of the season, but you were never really comfortable with them, at least I wasn’t. I felt they were over rated for the entire season, but when you start 17-0 and 27-1, its tough not to stay in the top 3 all season. Then, in the Sweet 16 against LSU, when Redick shot 3-of-18 (11 points), Duke needed that third scorer to avoid losing to an inferior team. They didn’t get it, McRoberts had 9, Paulus has 7, Nelson had 4.
Last year Duke could absorb a bad game by one of the Big Three, even during the tournament run. Singler was 0-10 from the floor versus Baylor in the Elite 8 and Duke still able to win behind a career game from Smith and advance.
This year they would be hard pressed to win such a game, in fact, they were. In the UNC game, Singler was held in check and it took an all-world effort from Nolan Smith and a huge game from Curry. They scored over 70% of Duke’s points that game, that is not something they can count for any stretch of time.
The one thing that Duke hasn’t had to deal with since Kyrie Irving went out also happens to be every Duke fans worst nightmare.
Nolan Smith having a bad game.
Right now, I don’t think that Duke would be able to win a game where Smith has a bad game. Singler would step up, but who else would be there to carry the load for the Blue Devils?
And that is the big difference between this year and last. And why 3 is always better than 2.
The Men Duke Need To Step Up
The next 10 games on the Duke schedule just may be the most important on their schedule. They begin with two more cupcakes before starting ACC play against Miami on January 2nd. After another step out against a non-conference foe (UAB on Jan. 5) they play six straight ACC teams, including returning to the scene of last seasons worst loss; at NC State.
Even though they may be important, these games may be the easiest on the schedule. None of the next ten opponents are ranked; although that could change, but not by much. Right now Boston College is the only team among them that is even receiving votes in any poll.
In the absence of Kyrie Irving there are a couple of positions that need to step up for Duke to remain at the top of the polls.
-The Back Up Point Guard
When Kyrie Irving went down it was clear that Nolan Smith would be the primary ballhandler for Duke. The bigger question was who going to back Smith up.
Nolan Smith is far from the sophomore who was stripped of his point guard duties two years ago. He has matured from just another in a long line of good college guards who played at Duke (Chris Duhon, Daniel Ewing, Sean Dockery, etc) to one of the best three Duke guards of the last 10 years (behind Jason Williams & JJ Redick). He will be able to handle the point while Irving is on the sidelines -no matter how long that it- because he has turned himself into a late first round pick, something that seemed impossible just two years ago.
The real issue is who will run the point while Smith is taking a breather. He is not going to play the 36-37 minutes he played last year because of the pace of this years team. He will average closer to 30-31 a game, leaving about 10 minutes for someone else to run the team.
Based on the first two games without Irving, it appears that the job will fall to Seth Curry and Tyler Thornton. Curry averaged five assists in the two games, while Thornton played his best game of the season in the second game.
Curry, a sophomore, is the stronger of the two as a back-up point guard option. During his red shirt season Curry might not have played in any games, but he spent the season running the point in practices against the starting five. His game is also better suited to be the back-up point guard (as opposed to the other guard on Duke’s bench, Andre Dawkins) because of his ability to drive to the basket. Dawkins is more of a spot up shooter, while Curry can create his own shot.
Thornton, the only other true point guard, should have no problems with the duties. The freshman’s downside is that he had only played seven minutes in the five games leading up to Irving’s injury, all during garbage time. Now he will be expected to handle the ball during ACC play. The good news is that he isn’t going to be leaned upon to do anything but be a back up, probably even the third choice to run the point. The increase Thornton sees in playing time will only strengthen Duke’s bench if Irving returns.
-The Big Men
Duke has yet to play a team that could physically dominate them inside, so the toughness of the front line (the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly) has yet to be called into question. ACC play will expose them to a more physical style of play. They will need to step up and battle like last years’ front court for Duke to have any chance at a repeat.
After a slow start Miles Plumlee has become more aggressive. 23 points and 13 rebounds in the past two games, his best back-to-back games of the season. Besides being more aggressive he is also becoming more comfortable with his role in the offense, doing whatever they need him to do. He looks destined to become another Duke player who trades personal accolades and stats to do what’s best for the team, following in the footsteps of David McClure and Lance Thomas.
His brother, Mason, is following an opposing vector. Since Irving went out, he has managed just five points and nine rebounds, his worst two game stretch of the season, but its more of a case of him not being needed in the offense, then playing poorly. Against Bradley, Duke played ‘bombs away’, attempting 33 three-pointers, all but ignoring the inside game. Then versus Saint Louis, Nolan Smith was given more leeway in the offense and took advantage of the freedom. Mason has already proven that he can take over a game (i.e. Marquette), so these last two games are more of an anomaly than what we should expect. He, like the rest of the Duke team, is trying to find himself in the new offense.
Kelly has shown improvement over last year, but he hasn’t been tested down low, but then that’s really not his game. He prefers to step out, set screens and drain the occasional three. He is shooting 58% from three this year, which would be more impressive if he had more than 12 attempts. He will need to learn to play inside more because the Plumlee’s have shown a propensity for picking up fouls and ending up on the bench. Kelly still needs another 15-20 pounds of muscle to become a legitimate power forward in college basketball, especially in a conference like the ACC.
If Duke gets strong play from the back-up point guards and their big men then they will be able to handle any team remaining on their schedule and will end up in Houston. If they fall short, other teams will learn to expose the Duke weaknesses and make life difficult for the Blue Devils.
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Don’t Blame The Duke Big Men
The talk going into the season was how Duke was going to replace the big man tandem of Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas with the trio of Miles & Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. This three-headed monster would allow Kyle Singler to stay at the three and be the player he was at the end of the season, a Final Four MOP.
Kelly came into the season surrounded by hype about being the most improved player on the team; he put on weight, added strength and even Coach K was singing his praises.
The Plumlees were supposed to be beasts down low, running up and down the court, on the receiving ends of dozens of alley-oops per game.
Then the season started and, well, things aren’t going as planned. Kelly is averaging just 5.4 points per game in 13.6 minutes. His best game came against Colgate (nine points & five rebounds) in which Duke won by 52. Miles Plumlee’s numbers are down from last season, he is averaging fewer minutes, points and rebounds. His best game also came in Duke’s biggest blowout (Colgate) when he had nine points and eight rebounds.
Only Mason Plumlee is having the kind of season that was envisioned for him. 11.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and two blocks per game. He has added a pair of double-doubles and had a coming-out party in the win against Marquette (25 & 12) that showed why some people think he will be a lottery pick.
So what has happened? Why haven’t Ryan Kelly or Miles Plumlee become the dominating forces they were supposed to be?
The biggest reason behind the big man disappearing act has been the play of the guards, specifically Duke’s ‘B’ back court of Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry.
They are each averaging 20+ minutes and 10+ points per game and have become a deadly tandem off the bench. Coming into the season they were known as pure scorers with sweet strokes, but they have shown a depth to their game on the defensive end that has surprised many Duke fans.
Dawkins and Curry always seem to be on the floor with each other and have shown a sense of where the other will be on the court. A familiarity bred from playing together in practice so much.
Who do you think played the guard position against Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith last season in practice? What about this year against Smith and Kyrie Irving? Smith said it last year that Curry made him better by practicing so hard against him.
This new dynamic duo has given Duke the best group of guards in the country, a deep talented collection that can beat you in many different ways.
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Another reason for big man drop off is Coach K.
Last years team was an anomaly in Duke history. Due to the teams make up, Coach K was forced to play a slow-down, half-court style. He only had three guards and couldn’t afford to play the pressure D or up-tempo offense he loves, if he had Scheyer and Smith would have dropped from exhaustion sometime around mid-February.
Coach K had tried running his preferred offense in the past without enough guards; in 2005-06, JJ Redick’s senior season. Redick had Sean Dockery and Greg Paulus with him in the back court that season and they fell short when Redick ran out of gas against LSU going 3-of-18 in a Regional semi-final.
Last year Coach K realized that with just three guards and a pair of senior big men who could barely beat the mascot down the court, he would have to switch things up. Things clicked when Zoubek was inserted into the starting roster and together, as a team, they were able to win a National Championship.
This year’s team has the personnel that allows Coach K to run, play pressure D and do all the things that have come to be associated with Duke teams in the past. The drive-and-kick-for-the-open-three is a system he has perfected and its easy for him to return to when he has the pieces. This season, its been very easy to make that transition because of the play of the guards.
With the rise of the Dawkins/Curry duo and Coach K’s love of the three-guard offense it is easy to see why the Duke big men are ‘underperforming’. They just aren’t getting the opportunities.
So, don’t blame the big men for not living up to the pre-season hype, be thankful that Duke hasn’t missed a beat without them playing like they could. Just think of what they will accomplish when they do start playing as expected.
