Is Alex Murphy Joining Duke A Good Thing? No.
Alex Murphy has decided to enroll at Duke a year early.
But is it the right move? I don’t think so.
Instead of becoming a Blue Devil for the 2012-13 season, he joins Austin Rivers, Michael Gbinije, Marshall Plumlee and Quinn Cook as part of the 2011-12 incoming class.
The 6-foot-8 small forward has been called a ‘clone’ of Kyle Singler and will look slide into starting rotation in his place, but will he be able to carve out enough minutes?
Murphy is going to have plenty of competition to get into the starting lineup as next years Duke’s team looks even deeper than this past year. Is his decision to join the team actually good for Duke? How much playing time is going to be available for him?
At the point, Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton will split all the minutes, as the only two point guards on the roster.
The two and three positions will be filled by Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, who should command about 70-75 minutes at the 2 and 3.
On the inside, Ryan Kelly, Mason & Miles Plumlee will each get 20-25 minutes, as Coach K prefers to play guys who know the system and their roles over younger, untested, undersized players.
That leaves about 20 minutes per game for everyone else on the team. Rising sophomore Josh Hairston should see an increase over his six minutes a game. Then, there are the other freshmen, Michael Gbinije and Marshall Plumlee, both of who should see some time on the floor because of their unique talents. Marshall as a true center and Gbinije as Duke’s only swing player.
I think Murphy would have done himself -and the Blue Devils- better by remaining part of the 2012-13 class, as, by then, the inside would be less crowded. Miles will graduate, Mason will probably leave after his junior season, that would leave Kelly and Marshall Plumlee inside. Murphy would have a better chance of getting bigger minutes next season, as opposed to this season.
With him entering Duke, its just going to clog things up in the rotation. Although the team could be 11 deep, Coach K has never played that many. By the end of the season he is usually down to 8 or 9. That will mean someone, maybe even two someones, will not see as much time as they expect, so don’t be surprised if someone transfers before the end of the season, say around mid-January after the first two weeks of ACC play.
As much as having another talented player on the team is a good thing, sometimes having too much talent can be a bad thing if it forces people onto the bench, or to another school.
Duke v Arizona Preview
First up for the Duke Blue Devils are the Arizona Wildcats.
To move on to the Elite Eight Duke must stop Derrick WIlliams, the best player in the country you’ve never heard of. If it wasn’t for Jimmer, he would have been the talk of the West coast and a reason to watch a college basketball game AFTER SportsCenter during the year.
The problem for Duke is that they have no one inside who matches up with WIlliams. He is too quick and has too much range to be guarded by Ryan Kelly or the Plumlees, so that means the job of defending him will fall to Kyle Singler.
It will be Singler’s toughest job of the season, even tougher than when he had to guard Harrison Barnes.
Williams is bigger and stronger than Barnes, and he may be bigger and stronger than Singler. It should be easy for Singler to cover him out on the perimeter, but when he goes inside, Duke will most likely double-team him and force him to give up the ball.
The Arizona sophomore averages over 19 points a game and is the only Wildcat who scores in double digits, he also has twice as many turnovers than assists. So Duke will look to try to contain him and force him to give up the ball, if they do then they have a real good shot at moving on to the Elite 8.
Another test for Duke will be making threes against Arizona. The Wildcats rank nationally in the top 10 of 3-point field gold percentage allowed and for Duke to move on, they need to make their threes. Something they had trouble with against Michigan in the round of 32 as they shot just 5-of-20.
The good news for Duke is that they present plenty of problems for Arizona, namely the back court of Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving. Coach K has said that Irving will see ‘significantly more minutes’ going forward in the NCAA Tournament, something that many Duke fans, myself included, thought was near impossible just a month ago.
Smith was his normal spectacular self, dropping 24 on Michigan, after playing barely more than a half in their opening round game. The ACC Player of the Year will need to continue the strong play against Arizona. Irving, on the other hand, didn’t score from the field until the last two minutes of Michigan game, yet he was still effective. His basket may have been the most important of the game.
Duke also has the experience factor in their corner. The defending National Champions have two seniors in the starting lineup, while Arizona didn’t even make the NIT last year. There is also the coach factor. Coach K has four rings, while Sean Miller is the only coach in this bracket without a National Championship.
Another stat that shouldn’t be over looked is that Arizona was 5-6 against teams in the NCAA Tournament, while Duke was 10-3. Arizona is 0-2 against teams still alive, while Duke is 4-2.
If Duke is able to contain Williams and they make their threes than the Blue Devils will move on and play again on Saturday. Duke by 12.
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Duke Wins ACC Tourney, I Eat Crow (And Burgers)
I missed all but the last 12 minutes of today’s game because I had to work. I was able to schedule my lunch so I could watch the end of the game at the new Irish pub by work.
Over a giant burger and a handful of cokes I watched Duke roll over the Tar Heels and into a 1 seed.
The only bad thing about the place was the company. The bar was filled with one of the kinds of Carolina fans that I hate.
Late 30s, female, bleached blonde, 20 pounds over weight and still living in a single wide. Oh, and she had a very big mouth.
Every time UNC scored, to cut the lead to 9 or 11, she cheered and clapped like it was VE-Day. After every made basket, she’d say “here we come” or “just like yesterday, it starts now.” Once Ryan Kelly hit the three with about 5 minutes left, it became oddly quiet from the other end of the bar and I could finally enjoy my burger in silence.
I didn’t say anything to the loudmouth, I enjoyed the win by tipping my waitress well and a low-key fist bump with the only other Duke fan in the bar.
Once back at work, it wasn’t as soul crushing as normal because of the Duke win. It was sweeter than a normal win for a myriad of reasons. One, it was against UNC. Two, it was convincing. Three, it was for the ACC Tournament Championship.
Then I met another kind of UNC Fan.
The rational kind. I know, I was surprised too.
He was happy, not for the loss, but for the season.
He wasn’t expecting an ACC regular season championship for the Tar Heels (no one was). He was shocked by how much better they became as the season went on and where this team ended up after the first month of the season when fans on local radio were calling for Roy’s head. He also knew that the game against Duke was over two minutes in when they were already down 8.
He was rational, composed and not a couple dick about getting stomped in the ACC Championship game. It was refreshing to meet a Tar Heel fan who thought that way and now I can honestly say that I know two such UNC fans.
Going into the ACC Tournament I had doubts about Duke. I thought they were limping in, that they weren’t growing like last years team, and just weren’t playing inspired ball.
I was wrong on all three counts and I will gladly eat a plate full of crow because of the doubts I had.
Not as good as that burger, but pretty good.
The Tale Of Two Toes
The ‘Drive For Five’ has taken on a new meaning. I think its talking about healthy toes for Duke guards.
When the camera panned to Nolan Smith prone on the floor motioning to his foot the entirety of Duke Nation cried out, ‘You’ve got to be f$^@*& kidding me. There is no way we lose another guard to a toe injury.’
The last time a toe changed the Duke rotation, Smith stepped up and filled the void. This time, with Smith on the bench (and not in the locker room, a good sign!!), Seth Curry stepped up and took over the game.
A five point lead, ended up being a 16 point win as the entire team turned it up without their leader and made sure that Friday night was not the final ACC game for Smith.
Five different Blue Devils scored in double digits and none of them were named Nolan Smith, who, was not only injured, but played his worst game of the season. Seven points, five turnovers and two assists on 2-of-11 shooting.
It was mostly a good game for the Blue Devils. The new starting lineup worked. The Plumlees came to play (20 & 20 combined), Ryan Kelly (5-of-5, 11 points) looked comfortable coming off the bench and Curry looks like he can run the team. They did shoot just 3-of-15 from behind the arc, so there is still some work to be done.
Right now its still too early to know if Nolan Smith will be able to play on Saturday.
“We’re going to try to make a long run, with or without him,” Krzyzewski said. “If he can’t play (Saturday) — and I’m not saying he won’t play, because I’ll find out later — but if he can’t, or we’re risking something and we have to keep him out, we’ll probably have until Friday if we go to Charlotte to get him with the right type of shoe and stuff like that.
We all hope that Smith will be able to play on Saturday. If the choice becomes to sit Nolan for the rest of the ACC Tournament to avoid further injury so he will be completely healthy for the NCAAs or chance further injury to Nolan’s toe to win the ACC Tourney, its really a no brainer. He sits. No questions.
There is really only one tournament that matters for Duke, and it ends in April, not on Selection Sunday.
[poll id="14"]
Will Duke Be Able To ‘Flip The Switch?’
Entering the ACC Tournament Duke has dropped 2 of its last 3 games, both on the road. One to a team playing for its NCAA life, the other to the hottest team in the ACC. Dropping two of the last three is not the way anyone wants to head into their conference tournament.
The recent losses have worried some Duke fans. Like me.
Some people think that Duke has yet to play its best ball. I beg to differ. I think they are past playing their best ball. They haven’t really made any progress on the offensive end in the past few games. They’ve been static and don’t seem to have the same toughness they did last year.
Right now, teams need to be playing better than they did the game before, or at least show some signs or growth. Last year, that was true of the Duke Blue Devils. Not this year. Yes, they have senior leadership, but so did the 2005-06 team and look what happened to them.
There are similarities with this years team and that team, which was led by seniors JJ Redick & Shelden Williams. That team hit their peak too early, lost a couple of games late in the season. They were able to rebound and win the ACC Tournament, but then they were bounced by LSU in the Sweet Sixteen because they did not have enough scoring options.
Every game (save the Georgia Tech game) since the first UNC game has been pretty much the same. Let Nolan Smith drive the ball into the lane, maybe he’ll shoot, maybe he’ll look for someone on the perimeter. That’s about it. Sometimes Kyle SIngler will get the ball, run around a screen and take a shot.
There doesn’t seem to be an effort to get the big men involved in the offense. Unlike last year, Duke does not have three guys to take care of the scoring game-in and game-out. During last years’ run, Duke could afford to have Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas do nothing but rebound and play defense because Jon Scheyer was out on the perimeter with Smith & Singler.
This years team does not have that luxury. Smith and Singler will get their 40 points a game, but there is no consistent third scorer to help them out. Seth Curry has been the ‘third option’ most often, but he’s disappeared almost as frequently (Virginia Tech anyone?). Andre Dawkins has been more cold than hot recently. Ryan Kelly has all but vanished and the Plumlee’s can each play good games, but never at the same time.
All of these factors give me a sick feeling that, one, this team will not be able to win the ACC Tournament; and two, that getting knocked out in the Sweet 16 is more likely than a trip to Houston.
It would be nice if they come out and flip a switch in the ACC Tourney. They have a great opportunity to get off to a good start in their first game against either NC State or Maryland, they’ve beat both teams twice this season. After that they will most likely play either Florida State or Virginia Tech, two teams who have shown the ability to beat the Blue Devils this season.
I know that Coach K is a Hall-of-Fame coach and Duke has won 9 of the past 12 ACC Tournaments, but its not as easy as ‘flipping a switch’ once the post season starts. There needs to be growth, signs that something is happening and people are growing into their roles.
I am not seeing that right now and it has me worried. I hope I am wrong and that Duke will be able to turn in on, win the ACC Tournament. If that happens, I will gladly eat crow.
[poll id="13"]
