Is Alex Murphy Joining Duke A Good Thing? No.

Alex Murphy has decided to enroll at Duke a year early.

But is it the right move? I don’t think so.

Instead of becoming a Blue Devil for the 2012-13 season, he joins Austin Rivers, Michael Gbinije, Marshall Plumlee and Quinn Cook as part of the 2011-12 incoming class.

The 6-foot-8 small forward has been called a ‘clone’ of Kyle Singler and will look slide into starting rotation in his place, but will he be able to carve out enough minutes?

Murphy is going to have plenty of competition to get into the starting lineup as next years Duke’s team looks even deeper than this past year. Is his decision to join the team actually good for Duke? How much playing time is going to be available for him?

At the point, Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton will split all the minutes, as the only two point guards on the roster.

The two and three positions will be filled by Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, who should command about 70-75 minutes at the 2 and 3.

On the inside, Ryan Kelly, Mason & Miles Plumlee will each get 20-25 minutes, as Coach K prefers to play guys who know the system and their roles over younger, untested, undersized players.

That leaves about 20 minutes per game for everyone else on the team. Rising sophomore Josh Hairston should see an increase over his six minutes a game. Then, there are the other freshmen, Michael Gbinije and Marshall Plumlee, both of who should see some time on the floor because of their unique talents. Marshall as a true center and Gbinije as Duke’s only swing player.

I think Murphy would have done himself -and the Blue Devils- better by remaining part of the 2012-13 class, as, by then, the inside would be less crowded. Miles will graduate, Mason will probably leave after his junior season, that would leave Kelly and Marshall Plumlee inside. Murphy would have a better chance of getting bigger minutes next season, as opposed to this season.

With him entering Duke, its just going to clog things up in the rotation. Although the team could be 11 deep, Coach K has never played that many. By the end of the season he is usually down to 8 or 9.  That will mean someone, maybe even two someones, will not see as much time as they expect, so don’t be surprised if someone transfers before the end of the season, say around mid-January after the first two weeks of ACC play.

As much as having another talented player on the team is a good thing, sometimes having too much talent can be a bad thing if it forces people onto the bench, or to another school.

Duke Adds Another Big Recruit, Future Looks Very Bright

With Duke adding another big time recruit for the 2012-13 class (SG Rasheed Sulaimon) my mind wandered to what Duke would look like two years from now and how that team might be better than this years team and next years team.

So, I looked into my crystal ball and amidst the smoke I saw this:

How’s this for a starting lineup?

Mason Plumlee (Sr.) – Ryan Kelly (Sr.) – Alex Murphy (Fr.) – Seth Curry (Sr.) – Tyler Thornton (Jr.)

And a bench containing: Andre Dawkins (Sr.), Rasheed Sulaimon (Fr.), Josh Hairston (Jr.), Michael Gbinije (So.), Marshall Plumlee (So.), Quinn Cook (So.)

That looks good to me, it also doesn’t include anyone else that Duke might add to the 2012-13 class. So, we will take a look at at what I saw for the Duke Blue Devils circa February 2013.

Point Guard:
Tyler Thornton would be coming into his own late in his junior season. As a sophomore (and starting point guard) his role is going to be distribute the ball and guide the offense. (Read: get the ball to Austin Rivers.) As a junior, when he’s truly leading the offense (instead of just getting the ball to Rivers), he is going to turn the corner, like Nolan Smith did two years ago between his sophomore and junior season. He won’t go from 8 points to 17 points a game, but he will start scoring more. He is going to be much more comfortable in his second season as starting point guard, look for some 12-15 assist games throughout the season.
Quinn Cook, will be a good backup, especially since he received a good amount of minutes as a freshmen as one of two point guards on the team.
There will be times when Thornton -as a junior- will be the youngest player on the court for Duke (Plumlee-Kelly-Dawkins-Curry-Thornton). That’s always a nice thing to have and even rarer on a team from a Big 6 conference.

Shooting Guard:
First of all, Austin Rivers is one-and-done, lets not kid ourselves. Unless there is some change in the NBA collective bargaining agreement, Rivers will be playing in the NBA in 2013.
By the time they are seniors, Dawkins and Curry will have acquired more nicknames (‘Dynamic Duo’, ‘Baby Faced Assassins’, etc) than strands of facial hair. Curry will most likely be the starter at the 2 in the future, but Dawkins will be the first person off the bench. They are going to drive defenses crazy with their range, their knowledge of each others games and their uncanny ability to find each other on the floor at all times.
Pushing them to make them better will be freshman Rasheed Sulaimon. A high energy guy, his playing time is going to be determined his defense.

Small Forward:
Alex Murphy will probably start the season as the starter, but he will suffer from Harrisonitis, a disease that affects over-touted freshmen from playing up to expectation, and will end up coming off the bench until he cures himself some time around January or February.
Unlike the previous top stars of the past two Duke recruiting classes (Irving & Rivers), Murphy isn’t as adapt at creating his own shot, therefore he is going to have trouble finding his way in the Duke offense with guys who have played together for 2 or 3 seasons.
Eventually he will figure it out and turn himself into a contender for ACC Rookie of the Year and a 2nd or 3rd team All-ACC calibre player.
Backing up Murphy will be junior Josh Hairston, who has turned into a David McClure-like player, a glue guy and a fan favorite. Hairston will be able to backup both the three and four and will see a good amount of playing time. Sophomore Michael Gbinije will be the last man off the very deep bench, but not forgotten on a team that lacks a true All-American threat.

Power Forward:
Ryan Kelly, a two-year starter, will be showing off his rebounding skills, as well as continuing to shoot 40% from 3-point range. He will finally be comfortable playing with his back to the basket as a senior and -as co-captain- will be one of the floor leaders.
As a senior there will be talk of Kelly playing at the next level, not as a starter, but a solid contributor off someone’s bench.

Center:
Mason Plumlee, yes he stuck around for his senior season because he was still being schooled by UNC and Maryland big men as a junior. As a senior he finally added that final 15 pounds he needed to become a force inside. The first true double-double Blue Devil since Shelden Williams, he gets tagged with the “like Brian Zoubek, but with an offensive game” line and makes a run at ACC Player of the Year.
His younger brother, Marshall has shaken off the freshman jitters, grows to a true 7′ footer and adds some weight. This will also be the last season of multiple Plumlees on the floor for Duke, a streak that ends at 5, but Marshall will continue the Plumlee streak and eventually ends at 7 straight Duke teams with a Plumlee.

With four seniors, a junior point guard, a stud freshman on the wing and a deep bench, the 2012-13 Duke team is a near lock to make it back to the Final Four after falling short the season before. Rivers was only able to carry the team to the Elite 8 before their lack of an emotional leader finally caught up with them.

So, my crystal ball says the Duke future looks bright for the next couple of seasons. Its back to the way it should be, reloading, not rebuilding.

Duke Stuffs Miami Of Ohio

Two games, two blowout wins. (Do you really expect anything else from Duke in the early part of the season?)

Two games, two different leading scorers. (Nolan Smith and Seth Curry.)

Two games, two different starting lineups. (It’s your turn Ryan Kelly.)

So what have we learned in two games?
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One, Duke can punish you in different ways.

Miami coach Charlie Coles wanted to limit the Duke fast break opportunities, so he had two or three players back on defense, leaving just one player underneath to deal with multiple Duke rebounders. That didn’t turn out so well, the Blue Devils had a 43-27 rebounding advantage, including 11 on the offensive end. Mason Plumlee had a career high with 14 last night in the first of many double-doubles this season.

This was a contrast to the Princeton game where the Tigers played a zone defense, jamming the low post and out-rebounded Duke. In response, Duke shredded the zone by shooting 14-of-26 from three.

You know the adage, dammed if you do…

Two, Duke has depth.

In just the second game of the season Coach K altered his starting lineup, putting Ryan Kelly in and removing Miles Plumlee. The only junior on the team got lost in the opener against Princeton and came off the bench in game two. It can’t really be considered a benching as Miles worked just 3 less minutes in the second game (17 to 14) and Kelly only gained two minutes in the starting role (14 to 16).

What it did was inform the team that those who play hard will be rewarded. Kelly has been the second best big man in Duke’s rotation early in the season (behind Mason Plumlee) and the start in game 2 was a testament to that fact. I would expect whoever is playing better at the time will be the starter for the rest of the season.

There are still some things to work out amongst the bigs. Both Kelly and Miles Plumlee were out rebounded by Andre Dawkins, a guard six inches shorter than both of them. Any team with a strong front line is going to manhandle Duke down low. They may be big and athletic, but they need to get stronger and smarter. They need to be more like last years starters, Zoubek and Thomas, if Duke has any chance of repeating.
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Three, Coach K really likes having all these guards.

Who can blame him? After having just three guards on the team last year, he is over compensating by having them play so much early on. Four guards are averaging over 20 minutes a game (Nolan Smith, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving and Dawkins), as opposed to just two forwards (Kyle Singler & Mason Plumlee). Even freshman Tyler Thornton is averaging over 10 minutes a game as the fifth guard.

The quartet are averaging 10+ points a game and -except for Dawkins scoring nine against Miami- have each posted double digits in every game. All of them can make the outside shot and Curry & Dawkins have quickly found their roles in the offense. Get down the court, find the vacant spot, wait for the pass, and then, bury the open three.

Smith and Irving are quick enough to find lanes to the hoop, and if the double team occurs, make the pass to the open big man. Expect plenty of alley-oops, tons of put back flushes and hours and hours of the Crazies exploding whenever these occur.

Coach K should be happy with the effort that his team has put forward so far, but there are things to work on (like figuring out a rotation) and the early part of the season will be the time for that. Expect the Plumlees and Kelly to get more aggressive, or they will find their minutes decrease even more as the three guard line up becomes the preferred style of play in Durham this year.

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Duke Reloads For 2011-12

Before we get to the current season, lets focus on next years’ team.

This past Thursday Duke landed their third top-25 player (according to Scout.com) for the 2011-12 season. Point guard Quinn Cook chose to play his college ball in Durham. His decision to play for the Blue Devils gave them a second straight incoming class with a five-star point guard.

While Cook isn’t as athletic or quick as Kyrie Irving (this season’s five-star point guard) he has earned the reputation as a leader and playmaker. He is also more likely to stick around for more than a single season, unlike Irving. Most people think that the only way Irving sticks around for his sophomore season is if there is an NBA lockout.

Joining Cook in the back court will be shooting guard Austin Rivers, the top ranked player of the 2011 class. Son of Boston Celtics coach, Doc Rivers, he has the full package of offensive weapons. A deep game out to 28 feet, an excellent mid-range game and he is strong enough to finish inside when he drives to the hoop.

Rivers chose Duke at the end of August after breaking his commitment to Florida back in September.

“He picked Duke because of [Mike Krzyzewski] and his staff,” his high school coach David Bailey said. “There is a ton of tradition at Duke, and it was the best place for him from a basketball and academic standpoint.”

The third member of the top-25 players is Michael Gbinije, a smooth 6-6 small forward. For the record, his last name is pronounced Ben-ni-jay. A fundamentally sound player, he was the first of the three to commit to Duke when he chose them back in March after watching them dismantle UNC at Cameron by 32 points.

Gbinije has a smooth stroke out to 20 feet and his grasp of the fundamentals will allow him an easier transition to the college game. A long, wing player he will need to work on his quickness and strength to become an All-ACC player.

The fourth member of the 2011-12 Duke freshman class is Marshall Plumlee. Don’t worry, he is the final Plumlee. Like his brothers, he is an athletic big man who runs the floor well and is a good rebounder. At 6-11, 215 he is under weight for the ACC and will need to add 25-30 pounds to be a real productive big man at the college level.

If his brother Mason sticks around for his junior season, then Duke will be in the enviable position of having three brothers on the same team.

There it is, next years class, just in time to start enjoying this years class.