Will Duke Be Able To ‘Flip The Switch?’
Entering the ACC Tournament Duke has dropped 2 of its last 3 games, both on the road. One to a team playing for its NCAA life, the other to the hottest team in the ACC. Dropping two of the last three is not the way anyone wants to head into their conference tournament.
The recent losses have worried some Duke fans. Like me.
Some people think that Duke has yet to play its best ball. I beg to differ. I think they are past playing their best ball. They haven’t really made any progress on the offensive end in the past few games. They’ve been static and don’t seem to have the same toughness they did last year.
Right now, teams need to be playing better than they did the game before, or at least show some signs or growth. Last year, that was true of the Duke Blue Devils. Not this year. Yes, they have senior leadership, but so did the 2005-06 team and look what happened to them.
There are similarities with this years team and that team, which was led by seniors JJ Redick & Shelden Williams. That team hit their peak too early, lost a couple of games late in the season. They were able to rebound and win the ACC Tournament, but then they were bounced by LSU in the Sweet Sixteen because they did not have enough scoring options.
Every game (save the Georgia Tech game) since the first UNC game has been pretty much the same. Let Nolan Smith drive the ball into the lane, maybe he’ll shoot, maybe he’ll look for someone on the perimeter. That’s about it. Sometimes Kyle SIngler will get the ball, run around a screen and take a shot.
There doesn’t seem to be an effort to get the big men involved in the offense. Unlike last year, Duke does not have three guys to take care of the scoring game-in and game-out. During last years’ run, Duke could afford to have Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas do nothing but rebound and play defense because Jon Scheyer was out on the perimeter with Smith & Singler.
This years team does not have that luxury. Smith and Singler will get their 40 points a game, but there is no consistent third scorer to help them out. Seth Curry has been the ‘third option’ most often, but he’s disappeared almost as frequently (Virginia Tech anyone?). Andre Dawkins has been more cold than hot recently. Ryan Kelly has all but vanished and the Plumlee’s can each play good games, but never at the same time.
All of these factors give me a sick feeling that, one, this team will not be able to win the ACC Tournament; and two, that getting knocked out in the Sweet 16 is more likely than a trip to Houston.
It would be nice if they come out and flip a switch in the ACC Tourney. They have a great opportunity to get off to a good start in their first game against either NC State or Maryland, they’ve beat both teams twice this season. After that they will most likely play either Florida State or Virginia Tech, two teams who have shown the ability to beat the Blue Devils this season.
I know that Coach K is a Hall-of-Fame coach and Duke has won 9 of the past 12 ACC Tournaments, but its not as easy as ‘flipping a switch’ once the post season starts. There needs to be growth, signs that something is happening and people are growing into their roles.
I am not seeing that right now and it has me worried. I hope I am wrong and that Duke will be able to turn in on, win the ACC Tournament. If that happens, I will gladly eat crow.
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Duke Bigs Grow Against NC State
The past two games have seen an improvement inside for the Duke Blue Devils as the three big men are getting more comfortable in their roles; as rebounders and occasional scorers.
At the beginning of the season everyone, myself included, were expecting huge offensive numbers from the trio of Miles & Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly, when they didn’t materialize we started questioning what was wrong with them.
In fact, nothing is wrong with them. We just didn’t give them a chance.
Should we really have expected double-doubles from three guys who have barely played a full season between them? None of them had been asked to be any part of the offense last season, and now we want them to call for the ball down low and have the offense run through them? Not gonna happen.
Last season the Plumlees playing time was mostly as second stringers behind Brian Zoubek & Lance Thomas and Kelly’s time was non-existant (he had just 6 points in ACC play). How could we in our right mind expect anything more than a year of struggles from these guys? Plus, you have two All-Americans and the number one freshman point guard on your team. How many touches would you give to a trio of untested big men? About as many as I get per game.
Not being called upon to score last year has slowed their progress this season as they look for ways to get involved in the offense. They are getting there. They are taking -and making- more shots in recent games.
The win against NC State was the best collective game for the big men this season. 29 points (11-of-16), 26 rebounds, eight blocks and just four fouls. Without them Duke wouldn’t have won last night’s game.
It was Miles who played best, escaping Coach Ks doghouse. He scored 11 points and had eight rebounds, including a couple of big offensive rebounds and baskets in the second half after NC State cut the lead to five. Clearly his recent time on the pine (just 10 minutes in his last two games) lit a fire under the junior.
Kelly added the same (11 & 
including 2-of-2 three-pointers, Mason led the team with 10 rebounds and six blocks and all three big men contributed to NC State shooting 22% in the first half, allowing Duke to build a 14 point lead. They also helped Duke out rebound NC State by 10, who were the ACC leaders in rebounding margin coming into the game.
Should we think that a renaissance has begun in Durham because of the big man play in the past two games? No.
Will there be some setbacks? Of course.
Will they continue to evolve into their roles? Yes.
If they find their roles like last years bigs no one if going to care what their numbers are if there is a fifth banner in the rafters of Cameron Indoor.
Duke Big Men Continue To Disappoint
Well, it looks like we’ve been fooled again.
As Duke fans we’ve bought into the hype that this years big men were the second coming.
We all heard that Mason Plumlee was a possible lottery pick, that Ryan Kelly made the most improvement over the summer, and, that Miles Plumlee was ready to be a big time player.
None of that has come to fruition this year, with the exception of Mason versus Marquette (25 and 12), this group of big men haven’t separated themselves from past big men. Why?
1. Our expectations are too high.
We are always looking for them to be the reincarnation of Shelden Williams or Carlos Boozer. That’s not going to happen, especially at a guard driven school like Duke. Those guys are more of the exception than the rule as shown by the fact that in the last 10 years they are the only two true big men on any Duke roster.
Duke brings in big men who are like Josh McRoberts, lots of potential, high basketball IQ and athletic, rather than strong. Right now Duke has three of those big men, there is not a Boozer among them.
2. We expect a fully developed big man to emerge like Venus from the sea. [I want to apologize for the image or Miles' head on the Botticelli Venus.]
Big men tend to develop slower than guards. How long did it take Lance Thomas to develop that 15 footer from the baseline? Four years. Could a sophomore Brian Zoubek been the ultimate x-factor on last years team? No.
Zoubek and Thomas had been growing into and learning their roles for four years when they blossomed last year, helping the team win a National Championship. Something that seemed unfathomable when they stepped on campus four years earlier.
Both Miles and Kelly are four-year players and with his less than stellar start, Mason’s stock has dropped enough that he will most likely be returning for his junior season. Good for Duke, bad for everyone else. Next year they will have three upperclass big men and three Plumlees.
3. Their games are far from being well-rounded.
Neither Plumlee has a reliable shot outside of 12 feet and aren’t rebounding machines, but get them out in the break or give them an opening to the basket and they are nearly unstoppable. Kelly has the three-point shot, but that’s about it, as he is neither as strong or quick as either Plumlee.
All three of them are good on the defensive end, but only in swarms. None of them are going to be left alone under the basket like Shelden Williams. They need to attack in gangs, many of their blocked shots and steals come from the weak-side.
None of these guys are strong enough to play with their backs to the basket and manhandle their way inside. Without an arsenal of offensive moves their touches are going to be limited, which will keep their scoring stats low. If there was a stat that tracked how many screens they set that led to open threes, they would be leading the nation as a group.
4. Most teams play a defense to stop Duke from running.
Why? It’s obvious. Duke has multiple options when they run the break. They have athletic big men who can get down court and into great position for easy shots AND great shooters who can find the open spaces. No one wants to give Duke that many options on the break, so they defend against the break.
Since they can’t run, they can’t their big men as involved in the offense as they would like. Duke is forced to run a half court offense and they use the big men as screeners or passers, not as scorers. There are only a few plays in Coach K’s book for big men and when you have an All-American at guard and small forward, how many looks are the big men going to get.
So, there you have it. As fans we can’t expect the big men to act like people they are not. The Plumlees and Kelly are not, and will never be, Carlos Boozer, or even Brian Zoubek. Right now, none of the three are strong enough (or well-rounded enough) to be the dominating big man we were expecting and it doesn’t look like that transformation is going to happen this season.
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The Men Duke Need To Step Up
The next 10 games on the Duke schedule just may be the most important on their schedule. They begin with two more cupcakes before starting ACC play against Miami on January 2nd. After another step out against a non-conference foe (UAB on Jan. 5) they play six straight ACC teams, including returning to the scene of last seasons worst loss; at NC State.
Even though they may be important, these games may be the easiest on the schedule. None of the next ten opponents are ranked; although that could change, but not by much. Right now Boston College is the only team among them that is even receiving votes in any poll.
In the absence of Kyrie Irving there are a couple of positions that need to step up for Duke to remain at the top of the polls.
-The Back Up Point Guard
When Kyrie Irving went down it was clear that Nolan Smith would be the primary ballhandler for Duke. The bigger question was who going to back Smith up.
Nolan Smith is far from the sophomore who was stripped of his point guard duties two years ago. He has matured from just another in a long line of good college guards who played at Duke (Chris Duhon, Daniel Ewing, Sean Dockery, etc) to one of the best three Duke guards of the last 10 years (behind Jason Williams & JJ Redick). He will be able to handle the point while Irving is on the sidelines -no matter how long that it- because he has turned himself into a late first round pick, something that seemed impossible just two years ago.
The real issue is who will run the point while Smith is taking a breather. He is not going to play the 36-37 minutes he played last year because of the pace of this years team. He will average closer to 30-31 a game, leaving about 10 minutes for someone else to run the team.
Based on the first two games without Irving, it appears that the job will fall to Seth Curry and Tyler Thornton. Curry averaged five assists in the two games, while Thornton played his best game of the season in the second game.
Curry, a sophomore, is the stronger of the two as a back-up point guard option. During his red shirt season Curry might not have played in any games, but he spent the season running the point in practices against the starting five. His game is also better suited to be the back-up point guard (as opposed to the other guard on Duke’s bench, Andre Dawkins) because of his ability to drive to the basket. Dawkins is more of a spot up shooter, while Curry can create his own shot.
Thornton, the only other true point guard, should have no problems with the duties. The freshman’s downside is that he had only played seven minutes in the five games leading up to Irving’s injury, all during garbage time. Now he will be expected to handle the ball during ACC play. The good news is that he isn’t going to be leaned upon to do anything but be a back up, probably even the third choice to run the point. The increase Thornton sees in playing time will only strengthen Duke’s bench if Irving returns.
-The Big Men
Duke has yet to play a team that could physically dominate them inside, so the toughness of the front line (the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly) has yet to be called into question. ACC play will expose them to a more physical style of play. They will need to step up and battle like last years’ front court for Duke to have any chance at a repeat.
After a slow start Miles Plumlee has become more aggressive. 23 points and 13 rebounds in the past two games, his best back-to-back games of the season. Besides being more aggressive he is also becoming more comfortable with his role in the offense, doing whatever they need him to do. He looks destined to become another Duke player who trades personal accolades and stats to do what’s best for the team, following in the footsteps of David McClure and Lance Thomas.
His brother, Mason, is following an opposing vector. Since Irving went out, he has managed just five points and nine rebounds, his worst two game stretch of the season, but its more of a case of him not being needed in the offense, then playing poorly. Against Bradley, Duke played ‘bombs away’, attempting 33 three-pointers, all but ignoring the inside game. Then versus Saint Louis, Nolan Smith was given more leeway in the offense and took advantage of the freedom. Mason has already proven that he can take over a game (i.e. Marquette), so these last two games are more of an anomaly than what we should expect. He, like the rest of the Duke team, is trying to find himself in the new offense.
Kelly has shown improvement over last year, but he hasn’t been tested down low, but then that’s really not his game. He prefers to step out, set screens and drain the occasional three. He is shooting 58% from three this year, which would be more impressive if he had more than 12 attempts. He will need to learn to play inside more because the Plumlee’s have shown a propensity for picking up fouls and ending up on the bench. Kelly still needs another 15-20 pounds of muscle to become a legitimate power forward in college basketball, especially in a conference like the ACC.
If Duke gets strong play from the back-up point guards and their big men then they will be able to handle any team remaining on their schedule and will end up in Houston. If they fall short, other teams will learn to expose the Duke weaknesses and make life difficult for the Blue Devils.
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Don’t Blame The Duke Big Men
The talk going into the season was how Duke was going to replace the big man tandem of Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas with the trio of Miles & Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. This three-headed monster would allow Kyle Singler to stay at the three and be the player he was at the end of the season, a Final Four MOP.
Kelly came into the season surrounded by hype about being the most improved player on the team; he put on weight, added strength and even Coach K was singing his praises.
The Plumlees were supposed to be beasts down low, running up and down the court, on the receiving ends of dozens of alley-oops per game.
Then the season started and, well, things aren’t going as planned. Kelly is averaging just 5.4 points per game in 13.6 minutes. His best game came against Colgate (nine points & five rebounds) in which Duke won by 52. Miles Plumlee’s numbers are down from last season, he is averaging fewer minutes, points and rebounds. His best game also came in Duke’s biggest blowout (Colgate) when he had nine points and eight rebounds.
Only Mason Plumlee is having the kind of season that was envisioned for him. 11.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and two blocks per game. He has added a pair of double-doubles and had a coming-out party in the win against Marquette (25 & 12) that showed why some people think he will be a lottery pick.
So what has happened? Why haven’t Ryan Kelly or Miles Plumlee become the dominating forces they were supposed to be?
The biggest reason behind the big man disappearing act has been the play of the guards, specifically Duke’s ‘B’ back court of Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry.
They are each averaging 20+ minutes and 10+ points per game and have become a deadly tandem off the bench. Coming into the season they were known as pure scorers with sweet strokes, but they have shown a depth to their game on the defensive end that has surprised many Duke fans.
Dawkins and Curry always seem to be on the floor with each other and have shown a sense of where the other will be on the court. A familiarity bred from playing together in practice so much.
Who do you think played the guard position against Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith last season in practice? What about this year against Smith and Kyrie Irving? Smith said it last year that Curry made him better by practicing so hard against him.
This new dynamic duo has given Duke the best group of guards in the country, a deep talented collection that can beat you in many different ways.
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Another reason for big man drop off is Coach K.
Last years team was an anomaly in Duke history. Due to the teams make up, Coach K was forced to play a slow-down, half-court style. He only had three guards and couldn’t afford to play the pressure D or up-tempo offense he loves, if he had Scheyer and Smith would have dropped from exhaustion sometime around mid-February.
Coach K had tried running his preferred offense in the past without enough guards; in 2005-06, JJ Redick’s senior season. Redick had Sean Dockery and Greg Paulus with him in the back court that season and they fell short when Redick ran out of gas against LSU going 3-of-18 in a Regional semi-final.
Last year Coach K realized that with just three guards and a pair of senior big men who could barely beat the mascot down the court, he would have to switch things up. Things clicked when Zoubek was inserted into the starting roster and together, as a team, they were able to win a National Championship.
This year’s team has the personnel that allows Coach K to run, play pressure D and do all the things that have come to be associated with Duke teams in the past. The drive-and-kick-for-the-open-three is a system he has perfected and its easy for him to return to when he has the pieces. This season, its been very easy to make that transition because of the play of the guards.
With the rise of the Dawkins/Curry duo and Coach K’s love of the three-guard offense it is easy to see why the Duke big men are ‘underperforming’. They just aren’t getting the opportunities.
So, don’t blame the big men for not living up to the pre-season hype, be thankful that Duke hasn’t missed a beat without them playing like they could. Just think of what they will accomplish when they do start playing as expected.
