Duke Looks To Repeat, But…

Weren’t we here last year?

The similarities between this years team and last years team run deep.

A Duke Blue Devil team trying to figure out exactly who they are.
A struggling Kyle Singler.
A Duke guard on the road to becoming ACC Player of the Year.
Big men who look to rebound first, get the ball back to the perimeter shooters second and score third.
The borderline 1-slash-2 seed.
The embarrassing loss to a Big East team.
The most recent victory over a non-ACC team.
26-2 this year, 24-4 last year.

So does that mean a loss at Virginia Tech is on the horizon, just like last when they lost at Maryland? Could senior Malcolm Delaney pull a Greivis Vasquez and will his team to victory over Duke? It’s a game that Virginia Tech needs to win to solidify their post season resume, so you know they will come out all guns blazing.

There is one glaring difference between this years team and last. And, no, its not Zoubek’s epic beard.

The big difference is last year Duke was led by ‘The Big Three’, this year its been ‘The Big Two’. Just like in math, three is better than two. Three is safer than two as well. How many two-legged stools have you ever sat on? Ones that you bought at IKEA don’t count, those Swedes know how to defy gravity.

This year, the ‘Big Two’ has morphed into the ‘Big One-and-Three-Quarters’. Nolan Smith has been even better than anyone could have hoped, but Singler has hardly played up to his preseason predictions and that ‘third scorer’ that every teams needs, has yet to fully emerge.

Right now, that third scorer role is being filled by Seth Curry, but at different times this year its been Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly and even Mason Plumlee. Curry has proven to be able to come up big in big games (UNC) and has the best overall game for being Duke’s ‘third scorer’, he can spot up or drive to the hoop. It was nice to see Curry come up big in a tough game because Duke is going to need a game like that from one of those guys to make it to Houston.

Without a true third scorer, this years team reminds me of the 2005-06 team. A team with two outstanding players (Redick & Williams) and a bunch of other guys who could score in double digits [Freshmen Josh McRoberts & Greg Paulus; Sophomore DeMarcus Nelson; Seniors Sean Dockery & Lee Melchionni], but didn’t do it often enough to be called a ‘third scorer.’
Those other guys combined for 35.3 points in 2005-06. This year, those other guys [Curry, Dawkins, Kelly & both Plumlees] combine for 36.5.

You remember that team, don’t you? Number one for the majority of the season, but you were never really comfortable with them, at least I wasn’t. I felt they were over rated for the entire season, but when you start 17-0 and 27-1, its tough not to stay in the top 3 all season. Then, in the Sweet 16 against LSU, when Redick shot 3-of-18 (11 points), Duke needed that third scorer to avoid losing to an inferior team. They didn’t get it, McRoberts had 9, Paulus has 7, Nelson had 4.

Last year Duke could absorb a bad game by one of the Big Three, even during the tournament run. Singler was 0-10 from the floor versus Baylor in the Elite 8 and Duke still able to win behind a career game from Smith and advance.

This year they would be hard pressed to win such a game, in fact, they were. In the UNC game, Singler was held in check and it took an all-world effort from Nolan Smith and a huge game from Curry. They scored over 70% of Duke’s points that game, that is not something they can count for any stretch of time.

The one thing that Duke hasn’t had to deal with since Kyrie Irving went out also happens to be every Duke fans worst nightmare.

Nolan Smith having a bad game.

Right now, I don’t think that Duke would be able to win a game where Smith has a bad game. Singler would step up, but who else would be there to carry the load for the Blue Devils?

And that is the big difference between this year and last. And why 3 is always better than 2.

Duke Big Men Continue To Disappoint

Well, it looks like we’ve been fooled again.

As Duke fans we’ve bought into the hype that this years big men were the second coming.

We all heard that Mason Plumlee was a possible lottery pick, that Ryan Kelly made the most improvement over the summer, and, that Miles Plumlee was ready to be a big time player.

None of that has come to fruition this year, with the exception of Mason versus Marquette (25 and 12), this group of big men haven’t separated themselves from past big men. Why?

1. Our expectations are too high.
We are always looking for them to be the reincarnation of Shelden Williams or Carlos Boozer. That’s not going to happen, especially at a guard driven school like Duke. Those guys are more of the exception than the rule as shown by the fact that in the last 10 years they are the only two true big men on any Duke roster.
Duke brings in big men who are like Josh McRoberts, lots of potential, high basketball IQ and athletic, rather than strong. Right now Duke has three of those big men, there is not a Boozer among them.

2. We expect a fully developed big man to emerge like Venus from the sea. [I want to apologize for the image or Miles' head on the Botticelli Venus.]
Big men tend to develop slower than guards. How long did it take Lance Thomas to develop that 15 footer from the baseline? Four years. Could a sophomore Brian Zoubek been the ultimate x-factor on last years team? No.
Zoubek and Thomas had been growing into and learning their roles for four years when they blossomed last year, helping the team win a National Championship. Something that seemed unfathomable when they stepped on campus four years earlier.
Both Miles and Kelly are four-year players and with his less than stellar start, Mason’s stock has dropped enough that he will most likely be returning for his junior season. Good for Duke, bad for everyone else. Next year they will have three upperclass big men and three Plumlees.

3. Their games are far from being well-rounded.
Neither Plumlee has a reliable shot outside of 12 feet and aren’t rebounding machines, but get them out in the break or give them an opening to the basket and they are nearly unstoppable. Kelly has the three-point shot, but that’s about it, as he is neither as strong or quick as either Plumlee.
All three of them are good on the defensive end, but only in swarms. None of them are going to be left alone under the basket like Shelden Williams. They need to attack in gangs, many of their blocked shots and steals come from the weak-side.
None of these guys are strong enough to play with their backs to the basket and manhandle their way inside. Without an arsenal of offensive moves their touches are going to be limited, which will keep their scoring stats low. If there was a stat that tracked how many screens they set that led to open threes, they would be leading the nation as a group.

4. Most teams play a defense to stop Duke from running.
Why? It’s obvious. Duke has multiple options when they run the break. They have athletic big men who can get down court and into great position for easy shots AND great shooters who can find the open spaces. No one wants to give Duke that many options on the break, so they defend against the break.
Since they can’t run, they can’t their big men as involved in the offense as they would like. Duke is forced to run a half court offense and they use the big men as screeners or passers, not as scorers. There are only a few plays in Coach K’s book for big men and when you have an All-American at guard and small forward, how many looks are the big men going to get.

So, there you have it. As fans we can’t expect the big men to act like people they are not. The Plumlees and Kelly are not, and will never be, Carlos Boozer, or even Brian Zoubek. Right now, none of the three are strong enough (or well-rounded enough) to be the dominating big man we were expecting and it doesn’t look like that transformation is going to happen this season.

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