Is Alex Murphy Joining Duke A Good Thing? No.
Alex Murphy has decided to enroll at Duke a year early.
But is it the right move? I don’t think so.
Instead of becoming a Blue Devil for the 2012-13 season, he joins Austin Rivers, Michael Gbinije, Marshall Plumlee and Quinn Cook as part of the 2011-12 incoming class.
The 6-foot-8 small forward has been called a ‘clone’ of Kyle Singler and will look slide into starting rotation in his place, but will he be able to carve out enough minutes?
Murphy is going to have plenty of competition to get into the starting lineup as next years Duke’s team looks even deeper than this past year. Is his decision to join the team actually good for Duke? How much playing time is going to be available for him?
At the point, Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton will split all the minutes, as the only two point guards on the roster.
The two and three positions will be filled by Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins, who should command about 70-75 minutes at the 2 and 3.
On the inside, Ryan Kelly, Mason & Miles Plumlee will each get 20-25 minutes, as Coach K prefers to play guys who know the system and their roles over younger, untested, undersized players.
That leaves about 20 minutes per game for everyone else on the team. Rising sophomore Josh Hairston should see an increase over his six minutes a game. Then, there are the other freshmen, Michael Gbinije and Marshall Plumlee, both of who should see some time on the floor because of their unique talents. Marshall as a true center and Gbinije as Duke’s only swing player.
I think Murphy would have done himself -and the Blue Devils- better by remaining part of the 2012-13 class, as, by then, the inside would be less crowded. Miles will graduate, Mason will probably leave after his junior season, that would leave Kelly and Marshall Plumlee inside. Murphy would have a better chance of getting bigger minutes next season, as opposed to this season.
With him entering Duke, its just going to clog things up in the rotation. Although the team could be 11 deep, Coach K has never played that many. By the end of the season he is usually down to 8 or 9. That will mean someone, maybe even two someones, will not see as much time as they expect, so don’t be surprised if someone transfers before the end of the season, say around mid-January after the first two weeks of ACC play.
As much as having another talented player on the team is a good thing, sometimes having too much talent can be a bad thing if it forces people onto the bench, or to another school.
Duke Plays A Perfect Game
The Duke Blue Devils may have played the perfect game against the Hampton Pirates.
To be sure, it wasn’t perfect in the conventional sense, but it was perfect in the sense that it was the game that Duke needed to play.
Any #1 seed in the NCAA wants to use their opening round game as a warm up, a place to work on their game, to get their younger players over their NCAA jitters and keep everyone healthy. Finally, no #1 seed wants to be involved in a close game, where the starters need to play hard for 30-35 minutes.
Duke did all of that, and, most importantly, got Kyrie Irving re-intergrated into the offense.
It was clear from the outset of the game that Duke wanted to continue to get their big men involved. Ever since Miles Plumlee was reinserted into the starting lineup, Duke has made it a point of emphasis to get the ball inside early and often.
They responded Friday like they have since the ACC Tournament started, with strong play inside and accurate shooting. The Plumlees were 8-of-11 (20 points) and 18 rebounds in limited minutes.
Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler played just long enough to keep the rust from forming, as did the other starters. As a team, they were more interested in getting the others involved. They had 17 assists on 32 made field goals, with Smith leading the way with seven. They only had 9 turnovers, while forcing 17 from the Pirates.
Coach K also got his freshmen involved, with Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston seeing what was probably the majority of their time during this tournament.
The biggest concern coming into the game was Kyrie Irving and how he would handle playing again.
People were worried that putting Irving back into the line up would disrupt the balance, throw off what Duke had worked three months to perfect. During Irving’s first minutes on the court, it appeared that those people were right. He was pressing too much, trying to throw it into overdrive right away. He committed some silly offensive fouls and took crazy shots.
Then, in the second half, Irving looked more like the player from December, culminating with the two 3-pointers he hit late in the game. He ended up leading all Duke scorers with 14 points.
It was the exact kind of game that Duke needed. Everyone was involved, Irving was comfortable with his teammates and no one played too many minutes. It was the perfect game.
Duke Adds Another Big Recruit, Future Looks Very Bright
With Duke adding another big time recruit for the 2012-13 class (SG Rasheed Sulaimon) my mind wandered to what Duke would look like two years from now and how that team might be better than this years team and next years team.
So, I looked into my crystal ball and amidst the smoke I saw this:
How’s this for a starting lineup?
Mason Plumlee (Sr.) – Ryan Kelly (Sr.) – Alex Murphy (Fr.) – Seth Curry (Sr.) – Tyler Thornton (Jr.)
And a bench containing: Andre Dawkins (Sr.), Rasheed Sulaimon (Fr.), Josh Hairston (Jr.), Michael Gbinije (So.), Marshall Plumlee (So.), Quinn Cook (So.)
That looks good to me, it also doesn’t include anyone else that Duke might add to the 2012-13 class. So, we will take a look at at what I saw for the Duke Blue Devils circa February 2013.
Point Guard:
Tyler Thornton would be coming into his own late in his junior season. As a sophomore (and starting point guard) his role is going to be distribute the ball and guide the offense. (Read: get the ball to Austin Rivers.) As a junior, when he’s truly leading the offense (instead of just getting the ball to Rivers), he is going to turn the corner, like Nolan Smith did two years ago between his sophomore and junior season. He won’t go from 8 points to 17 points a game, but he will start scoring more. He is going to be much more comfortable in his second season as starting point guard, look for some 12-15 assist games throughout the season.
Quinn Cook, will be a good backup, especially since he received a good amount of minutes as a freshmen as one of two point guards on the team.
There will be times when Thornton -as a junior- will be the youngest player on the court for Duke (Plumlee-Kelly-Dawkins-Curry-Thornton). That’s always a nice thing to have and even rarer on a team from a Big 6 conference.
Shooting Guard:
First of all, Austin Rivers is one-and-done, lets not kid ourselves. Unless there is some change in the NBA collective bargaining agreement, Rivers will be playing in the NBA in 2013.
By the time they are seniors, Dawkins and Curry will have acquired more nicknames (‘Dynamic Duo’, ‘Baby Faced Assassins’, etc) than strands of facial hair. Curry will most likely be the starter at the 2 in the future, but Dawkins will be the first person off the bench. They are going to drive defenses crazy with their range, their knowledge of each others games and their uncanny ability to find each other on the floor at all times.
Pushing them to make them better will be freshman Rasheed Sulaimon. A high energy guy, his playing time is going to be determined his defense.
Small Forward:
Alex Murphy will probably start the season as the starter, but he will suffer from Harrisonitis, a disease that affects over-touted freshmen from playing up to expectation, and will end up coming off the bench until he cures himself some time around January or February.
Unlike the previous top stars of the past two Duke recruiting classes (Irving & Rivers), Murphy isn’t as adapt at creating his own shot, therefore he is going to have trouble finding his way in the Duke offense with guys who have played together for 2 or 3 seasons.
Eventually he will figure it out and turn himself into a contender for ACC Rookie of the Year and a 2nd or 3rd team All-ACC calibre player.
Backing up Murphy will be junior Josh Hairston, who has turned into a David McClure-like player, a glue guy and a fan favorite. Hairston will be able to backup both the three and four and will see a good amount of playing time. Sophomore Michael Gbinije will be the last man off the very deep bench, but not forgotten on a team that lacks a true All-American threat.
Power Forward:
Ryan Kelly, a two-year starter, will be showing off his rebounding skills, as well as continuing to shoot 40% from 3-point range. He will finally be comfortable playing with his back to the basket as a senior and -as co-captain- will be one of the floor leaders.
As a senior there will be talk of Kelly playing at the next level, not as a starter, but a solid contributor off someone’s bench.
Center:
Mason Plumlee, yes he stuck around for his senior season because he was still being schooled by UNC and Maryland big men as a junior. As a senior he finally added that final 15 pounds he needed to become a force inside. The first true double-double Blue Devil since Shelden Williams, he gets tagged with the “like Brian Zoubek, but with an offensive game” line and makes a run at ACC Player of the Year.
His younger brother, Marshall has shaken off the freshman jitters, grows to a true 7′ footer and adds some weight. This will also be the last season of multiple Plumlees on the floor for Duke, a streak that ends at 5, but Marshall will continue the Plumlee streak and eventually ends at 7 straight Duke teams with a Plumlee.
With four seniors, a junior point guard, a stud freshman on the wing and a deep bench, the 2012-13 Duke team is a near lock to make it back to the Final Four after falling short the season before. Rivers was only able to carry the team to the Elite 8 before their lack of an emotional leader finally caught up with them.
So, my crystal ball says the Duke future looks bright for the next couple of seasons. Its back to the way it should be, reloading, not rebuilding.
Duke Mid-Season Grades, Part 3
Tyler Thornton [C-]
The freshman, whose gained the most minutes from Kyrie Irving’s injury, has been hit and miss in his time on the floor.
As the only healthy true point guard on the roster you would think he would be getting more playing time to allow Nolan Smith to play off the ball where he is more effective, but he seems unable to carry that load right now. This was probably to be expected as Thornton was supposed to be the 10th guys off the bench and play sparingly in ACC games.
He has shown promise, but seems to be a step slow right now as he picks up tons of cheap fouls because he is just a little out of position. He managed to foul out of the NC State game in just 11 minutes.
One thing I did notice that upset me was during the St John’s massacre. Towards the end of the game when Kyle SIngler stole the ball and made a very contested lay-up all the players on the Duke bench erupted, expect for Thornton. He stayed seated while everyone else was up and reacting
[I wrote this on Tuesday night, so I must amend it now that he has gotten the start and played well against Maryland. This game alone has raised his game from D+ to a C-. He has shown the ability to find the open man and even knock down the wide open three.]
Josh Hairston [incomplete]
The other freshman on the team is the forgotten member of this years squad. When we talk about bigmen and their failures we talk about the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly. When we talk about who is going to help out Smith, we mention Dawkins, Curry and Thornton. Hairston gets lost.
He really isn’t an understudy to Singler as they are different kinds of wing players. He’s a man without a role right now, which is fine because he’s the one player who isn’t needed to be anything this season.
He also hasn’t had one game that you can point to and say it was his best game of the season, so the jury is still out on Hairston who is seeing his minutes diminish game by game.
Coaching [B+]
After spending the pre-season and the first eight games of the season working on a game plan and rotation, the entire thing had to be scrapped.
It may have been scrapped, but it hasn’t been rebuilt. It just feels like Nolan Smith has been asked to do his job AND Irving’s job and all the other guards have moved up one spot in the rotation. The pieces have been moved around, but the board has not been reset.
Is a complete revamp of the offense coming? Will Coach K start three guards? Will Thornton get a start? Does Duke have the personnel for a complete rebuild this season?
It seems as if Coach K is almost reluctant to start three guards in the offense because of the depth inside, something that Duke normally doesn’t have. The game against St. Johns showed that Duke can’t keep up with quicker teams, so maybe a change to a three guard look would help them.
Coach K has made radical moves in the past to jump start his teams. 2001 he inserted freshman Chris Duhon in the starting lineup and asked senior Nate James to come off the bench when Carlos Boozer went down. We also can’t forget last season when Brian Zoubek hit the starting rotation. In both those instances, Duke responded by winning the National Championship. I’m not saying that by going to a three guard starting look is going to turn the season around for Duke, but something needs to be done.
[Again, I wrote this on Tuesday and had thought about a starting lineup with Thornton in it to free up Smith. It didn't quite work out that way, but they got Mason Plumlee involved more and Kyle Singler was crazy good for about 8 minutes in the second half.]
Duke/Wake Forest Preview
In a year when the ACC is down and there is a log jam of teams fighting for NCAA bids, two teams have separated themselves from the other ten.
It is universally accepted that the Duke Blue Devils are the best and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are the worst teams in the ACC. Duke is 17-1 and 4-1 in the ACC, while Wake Forest is 7-12 and 0-4 in conference. The only win over a major conference team that Wake Forest owns is 76-73 victory, at home, over Iowa, who is 0-6 in the Big 10.
They meet on Saturday at 4pm at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Wake Forest.
Duke comes in still trying to find an offensive identity without Kyrie Irving, even though they have played more games without him (10), than with him (8). Since the loss at Florida State, they’ve played three good halves (out of four) and have made strides in trying to get their big men more involved in the offense.
In the previous game against NC State, the trio of Duke big men, played their best collective game of the season. They look to expand on that against a Wake Forest team that is small on the inside. The Demon Deacons have only two players over 6-8, a pair of seven-footers, freshman Carson Desrosiers and junior Ty Walker, who sub each other at center.
The Wake Forest duo average just 7.6 points and 7.9 rebounds a game, but do block almost 5 shots a game. They may prove a problem for the Duke big men who haven’t faced a real shot blocking threat all season.
Also, expect to see the Duke freshman, Tyler Thornton and Josh Hairston, continue to get 6-8 minutes a game as Coach K searches for a rotation that works. This is hardly the Wake Forest team of years past and Duke should have no problem picking up a road win.
Duke by 23.
