Duke Adds Another Big Recruit, Future Looks Very Bright

With Duke adding another big time recruit for the 2012-13 class (SG Rasheed Sulaimon) my mind wandered to what Duke would look like two years from now and how that team might be better than this years team and next years team.

So, I looked into my crystal ball and amidst the smoke I saw this:

How’s this for a starting lineup?

Mason Plumlee (Sr.) – Ryan Kelly (Sr.) – Alex Murphy (Fr.) – Seth Curry (Sr.) – Tyler Thornton (Jr.)

And a bench containing: Andre Dawkins (Sr.), Rasheed Sulaimon (Fr.), Josh Hairston (Jr.), Michael Gbinije (So.), Marshall Plumlee (So.), Quinn Cook (So.)

That looks good to me, it also doesn’t include anyone else that Duke might add to the 2012-13 class. So, we will take a look at at what I saw for the Duke Blue Devils circa February 2013.

Point Guard:
Tyler Thornton would be coming into his own late in his junior season. As a sophomore (and starting point guard) his role is going to be distribute the ball and guide the offense. (Read: get the ball to Austin Rivers.) As a junior, when he’s truly leading the offense (instead of just getting the ball to Rivers), he is going to turn the corner, like Nolan Smith did two years ago between his sophomore and junior season. He won’t go from 8 points to 17 points a game, but he will start scoring more. He is going to be much more comfortable in his second season as starting point guard, look for some 12-15 assist games throughout the season.
Quinn Cook, will be a good backup, especially since he received a good amount of minutes as a freshmen as one of two point guards on the team.
There will be times when Thornton -as a junior- will be the youngest player on the court for Duke (Plumlee-Kelly-Dawkins-Curry-Thornton). That’s always a nice thing to have and even rarer on a team from a Big 6 conference.

Shooting Guard:
First of all, Austin Rivers is one-and-done, lets not kid ourselves. Unless there is some change in the NBA collective bargaining agreement, Rivers will be playing in the NBA in 2013.
By the time they are seniors, Dawkins and Curry will have acquired more nicknames (‘Dynamic Duo’, ‘Baby Faced Assassins’, etc) than strands of facial hair. Curry will most likely be the starter at the 2 in the future, but Dawkins will be the first person off the bench. They are going to drive defenses crazy with their range, their knowledge of each others games and their uncanny ability to find each other on the floor at all times.
Pushing them to make them better will be freshman Rasheed Sulaimon. A high energy guy, his playing time is going to be determined his defense.

Small Forward:
Alex Murphy will probably start the season as the starter, but he will suffer from Harrisonitis, a disease that affects over-touted freshmen from playing up to expectation, and will end up coming off the bench until he cures himself some time around January or February.
Unlike the previous top stars of the past two Duke recruiting classes (Irving & Rivers), Murphy isn’t as adapt at creating his own shot, therefore he is going to have trouble finding his way in the Duke offense with guys who have played together for 2 or 3 seasons.
Eventually he will figure it out and turn himself into a contender for ACC Rookie of the Year and a 2nd or 3rd team All-ACC calibre player.
Backing up Murphy will be junior Josh Hairston, who has turned into a David McClure-like player, a glue guy and a fan favorite. Hairston will be able to backup both the three and four and will see a good amount of playing time. Sophomore Michael Gbinije will be the last man off the very deep bench, but not forgotten on a team that lacks a true All-American threat.

Power Forward:
Ryan Kelly, a two-year starter, will be showing off his rebounding skills, as well as continuing to shoot 40% from 3-point range. He will finally be comfortable playing with his back to the basket as a senior and -as co-captain- will be one of the floor leaders.
As a senior there will be talk of Kelly playing at the next level, not as a starter, but a solid contributor off someone’s bench.

Center:
Mason Plumlee, yes he stuck around for his senior season because he was still being schooled by UNC and Maryland big men as a junior. As a senior he finally added that final 15 pounds he needed to become a force inside. The first true double-double Blue Devil since Shelden Williams, he gets tagged with the “like Brian Zoubek, but with an offensive game” line and makes a run at ACC Player of the Year.
His younger brother, Marshall has shaken off the freshman jitters, grows to a true 7′ footer and adds some weight. This will also be the last season of multiple Plumlees on the floor for Duke, a streak that ends at 5, but Marshall will continue the Plumlee streak and eventually ends at 7 straight Duke teams with a Plumlee.

With four seniors, a junior point guard, a stud freshman on the wing and a deep bench, the 2012-13 Duke team is a near lock to make it back to the Final Four after falling short the season before. Rivers was only able to carry the team to the Elite 8 before their lack of an emotional leader finally caught up with them.

So, my crystal ball says the Duke future looks bright for the next couple of seasons. Its back to the way it should be, reloading, not rebuilding.

The Men Duke Need To Step Up

The next 10 games on the Duke schedule just may be the most important on their schedule. They begin with two more cupcakes before starting ACC play against Miami on January 2nd. After another step out against a non-conference foe (UAB on Jan. 5) they play six straight ACC teams, including returning to the scene of last seasons worst loss; at NC State.

Even though they may be important, these games may be the easiest on the schedule. None of the next ten opponents are ranked; although that could change, but not by much. Right now Boston College is the only team among them that is even receiving votes in any poll.

In the absence of Kyrie Irving there are a couple of positions that need to step up for Duke to remain at the top of the polls.

-The Back Up Point Guard
When Kyrie Irving went down it was clear that Nolan Smith would be the primary ballhandler for Duke. The bigger question was who going to back Smith up.

Nolan Smith is far from the sophomore who was stripped of his point guard duties two years ago. He has matured from just another in a long line of good college guards who played at Duke (Chris Duhon, Daniel Ewing, Sean Dockery, etc) to one of the best three Duke guards of the last 10 years (behind Jason Williams & JJ Redick). He will be able to handle the point while Irving is on the sidelines -no matter how long that it- because he has turned himself into a late first round pick, something that seemed impossible just two years ago.

The real issue is who will run the point while Smith is taking a breather. He is not going to play the 36-37 minutes he played last year because of the pace of this years team. He will average closer to 30-31 a game, leaving about 10 minutes for someone else to run the team.

Based on the first two games without Irving, it appears that the job will fall to Seth Curry and Tyler Thornton. Curry averaged five assists in the two games, while Thornton played his best game of the season in the second game.

Curry, a sophomore, is the stronger of the two as a back-up point guard option. During his red shirt season Curry might not have played in any games, but he spent the season running the point in practices against the starting five. His game is also better suited to be the back-up point guard (as opposed to the other guard on Duke’s bench, Andre Dawkins) because of his ability to drive to the basket. Dawkins is more of a spot up shooter, while Curry can create his own shot.

Thornton, the only other true point guard, should have no problems with the duties. The freshman’s downside is that he had only played seven minutes in the five games leading up to Irving’s injury, all during garbage time. Now he will be expected to handle the ball during ACC play. The good news is that he isn’t going to be leaned upon to do anything but be a back up, probably even the third choice to run the point. The increase Thornton sees in playing time will only strengthen Duke’s bench if Irving returns.

-The Big Men
Duke has yet to play a team that could physically dominate them inside, so the toughness of the front line (the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly) has yet to be called into question. ACC play will expose them to a more physical style of play. They will need to step up and battle like last years’ front court for Duke to have any chance at a repeat.

After a slow start Miles Plumlee has become more aggressive. 23 points and 13 rebounds in the past two games, his best back-to-back games of the season. Besides being more aggressive he is also becoming more comfortable with his role in the offense, doing whatever they need him to do. He looks destined to become another Duke player who trades personal accolades and stats to do what’s best for the team, following in the footsteps of David McClure and Lance Thomas.

His brother, Mason, is following an opposing vector. Since Irving went out, he has managed just five points and nine rebounds, his worst two game stretch of the season, but its more of a case of him not being needed in the offense, then playing poorly. Against Bradley, Duke played ‘bombs away’, attempting 33 three-pointers, all but ignoring the inside game. Then versus Saint Louis, Nolan Smith was given more leeway in the offense and took advantage of the freedom. Mason has already proven that he can take over a game (i.e. Marquette), so these last two games are more of an anomaly than what we should expect. He, like the rest of the Duke team, is trying to find himself in the new offense.

Kelly has shown improvement over last year, but he hasn’t been tested down low, but then that’s really not his game. He prefers to step out, set screens and drain the occasional three. He is shooting 58% from three this year, which would be more impressive if he had more than 12 attempts. He will need to learn to play inside more because the Plumlee’s have shown a propensity for picking up fouls and ending up on the bench. Kelly still needs another 15-20 pounds of muscle to become a legitimate power forward in college basketball, especially in a conference like the ACC.

If Duke gets strong play from the back-up point guards and their big men then they will be able to handle any team remaining on their schedule and will end up in Houston. If they fall short, other teams will learn to expose the Duke weaknesses and make life difficult for the Blue Devils.

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