Duke: The Quarter Season Update
At the quarter pole Duke is in the exact same position in the polls as they were when the season began, but are in a completely different place. You probably wouldn’t have been able to get good odds on Duke being anything but 10-0 at this point, but with the loss of Kyrie Irving has fundamentally altered the way Duke will continue this season.
What We Have Learned:
-Kyrie Irving is the best point guard in Durham since Jason Williams. He has more than lived up to the hype that surrounded him.
-Duke has the deepest team in a long time. Before Irving went out, eight players were averaging 15 minutes or more. Now that he’s out, they will be going even deeper on the bench. In the past two games, both Josh Hairston and Tyler Thornton saw a significant increase in their minutes and Duke may end up with 10 players with 10+ minutes per game.
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Biggest Surprises:
-The play of the guards. It became clear that the back court of Irving and Nolan Smith is the best in the nation, and the Duke ‘B’ back court of Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry isn’t that bad either. The four of them are averaging almost 53 points, 12 rebounds, 14 assists and 4.5 steals a game.
Biggest Disappointments:
-The play of the big men. The Plumlees (Miles and Mason) and Ryan Kelly were supposed to be just like last years front court, but only more athletic with more scoring ability. So far they haven’t lived up to the expectations of the off-season. They have just three double-doubles (all from Mason) and are averaging less than 20 points between them, this isn’t what we were promised.
Part of this can be blamed on the stellar play of the guards who are keeping the big men off the floor as Coach K has gone back to lots of three-guard looks. The other part could be from the lack of strength of the trio. Sure they are big, but none of them have the strength of Brian Zoubek. The Big Z was a force at the end of last season and it wasn’t because he was more athletic than the other guy.
-The possibility that Irving plays just eight games as a Blue Devil. Nobody wants this to be true, but there is a possibility that we will never see Irving again on the floor in a Duke uniform.
Best Game:
-Kansas State
In what was a road game, Duke dismantled then #4 Kansas State 82-68 holding pre-season All-American Jacob Pullen to just four points. They turned the Wildcats over 21 times and played the best team defense of the season as they won the O’Reilly Auto Parts CBE Classic. The K-State game was also Irving’s best game of November and a pre-cursor for his coming out party against Michigan State a week later.
Up next: What to expect in the next 10 games
Duke Stuffs Miami Of Ohio
Two games, two blowout wins. (Do you really expect anything else from Duke in the early part of the season?)
Two games, two different leading scorers. (Nolan Smith and Seth Curry.)
Two games, two different starting lineups. (It’s your turn Ryan Kelly.)
So what have we learned in two games?
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One, Duke can punish you in different ways.
Miami coach Charlie Coles wanted to limit the Duke fast break opportunities, so he had two or three players back on defense, leaving just one player underneath to deal with multiple Duke rebounders. That didn’t turn out so well, the Blue Devils had a 43-27 rebounding advantage, including 11 on the offensive end. Mason Plumlee had a career high with 14 last night in the first of many double-doubles this season.
This was a contrast to the Princeton game where the Tigers played a zone defense, jamming the low post and out-rebounded Duke. In response, Duke shredded the zone by shooting 14-of-26 from three.
You know the adage, dammed if you do…
Two, Duke has depth.
In just the second game of the season Coach K altered his starting lineup, putting Ryan Kelly in and removing Miles Plumlee. The only junior on the team got lost in the opener against Princeton and came off the bench in game two. It can’t really be considered a benching as Miles worked just 3 less minutes in the second game (17 to 14) and Kelly only gained two minutes in the starting role (14 to 16).
What it did was inform the team that those who play hard will be rewarded. Kelly has been the second best big man in Duke’s rotation early in the season (behind Mason Plumlee) and the start in game 2 was a testament to that fact. I would expect whoever is playing better at the time will be the starter for the rest of the season.
There are still some things to work out amongst the bigs. Both Kelly and Miles Plumlee were out rebounded by Andre Dawkins, a guard six inches shorter than both of them. Any team with a strong front line is going to manhandle Duke down low. They may be big and athletic, but they need to get stronger and smarter. They need to be more like last years starters, Zoubek and Thomas, if Duke has any chance of repeating.
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Three, Coach K really likes having all these guards.
Who can blame him? After having just three guards on the team last year, he is over compensating by having them play so much early on. Four guards are averaging over 20 minutes a game (Nolan Smith, Seth Curry, Kyrie Irving and Dawkins), as opposed to just two forwards (Kyle Singler & Mason Plumlee). Even freshman Tyler Thornton is averaging over 10 minutes a game as the fifth guard.
The quartet are averaging 10+ points a game and -except for Dawkins scoring nine against Miami- have each posted double digits in every game. All of them can make the outside shot and Curry & Dawkins have quickly found their roles in the offense. Get down the court, find the vacant spot, wait for the pass, and then, bury the open three.
Smith and Irving are quick enough to find lanes to the hoop, and if the double team occurs, make the pass to the open big man. Expect plenty of alley-oops, tons of put back flushes and hours and hours of the Crazies exploding whenever these occur.
Coach K should be happy with the effort that his team has put forward so far, but there are things to work on (like figuring out a rotation) and the early part of the season will be the time for that. Expect the Plumlees and Kelly to get more aggressive, or they will find their minutes decrease even more as the three guard line up becomes the preferred style of play in Durham this year.
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Duke Wins Opener 97-60
There are a couple of numbers from the Duke game last night that are important to understand.
97. 27. 78. 26. 14. 29. 10.
97. Points that Duke scored against Princeton. In defeating the Tigers 97-60 to open the season, Duke scored one more point they scored in last seasons’ opener against UNC Greensboro. It let fans know that this team is going to be different from the slow down/half court team of last year which scored above 97 points just four times all last year. This team should break the century mark closer to a dozen times with its depth and speed. It is the most points Princeton has allowed in over 40 years.
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27. Princeton turnovers. They played defense like Duke teams of the past, jumping in passing lanes, harassing the ball handler and forcing the Tigers into numerous bad passes. The quicker lineup allowed Coach K to return to the pressing style he enjoys running and it paid off last night. Duke turned the 27 turnovers into 36 points. There were more break out passes in last nights’ game then all of last season.
78. The length in games of Duke’s ‘Non-Conference Home Winning Streak’. The streak is a decade long and last night’s game was witnessed by Cal Ripken Jr, someone who knows about long streaks. It was also their 43rd straight home win against unranked opponents.
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26. Kyle Singler’s minutes. After averaging over 35 minutes per game last year he probably didn’t know what to do with himself on the bench for that length of time. The depth that Duke has this season will allow Singler’s minutes to remain closer to 26 than the 35 of last season and keep him fresh for the end of the season. He was still able to put up 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting.
14. Duke three pointers, from six different players. Another sign that this years team is completely different from last year. On the downside, there were a couple of times Duke players launched ill-advised threes when there was no one in position for a rebound. Coach K was quick to sub those out who made that mistake to teach them the error of their ways with some time on the bench. This is a young team and they will learn when they should and shouldn’t take quick shots. Overall they shot 14-26 from three for the game, a good sign.
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29. Duke rebounds. Two less than Princeton. You can bet the house that Coach K is going to have something to say about this fact during the next practice. Miles and Mason Plumlee, taking over for the departed senior rebounding machine of Zoubek and Thomas, had a disappointing six total rebounds in 37 combined minutes. Only one of these rebounds came on the offensive end.
The brothers, who came into the season with huge expectations, got lost at times in the high speed Duke offense. Seven points, six rebounds, five assists and five turnovers. Not quite the start the Plumlees wanted.
10. Duke players who scored. Everyone who scored also played nine minutes or more, including all three freshmen. It was clear last night that Coach K is going to experiment with combinations of players on the floor to find what works. There were times when there were three guys over 6-8 on the floor and other times when the 6-7 Josh Hairston was playing the four. With a team this deep, it is going to take Coach K a while to figure out which combinations work. The good news is that with so many pieces Duke is going to have multiple combinations for multiple scenarios. Need a ‘big team’? No problem. Need a full court pressing group? Got that too. Need a three-point shooting group? Definitely have that.
Meet The 2010-11 Duke Blue Devils: The Junior, The Lone Wolf
MIles Plumlee (6-10, forward)
This is a big season for Miles Plumlee, he will get to show just what he can do in an offense that is more his style: athletic and up-tempo. He is going to be asked to play more minutes, score more points and also look to be more of a presence inside.
Filling the shoes of the departed seniors is going to be the biggest challenge that he faces this year. Brian Zoubek was among the national leaders in rebounds per minute and Lance Thomas was an all ACC defender. His numbers last season (5.2 ppg/ 4.9 rpg in 16 minutes) cannot be accurate yardstick to project his numbers this season. Last years team was a slow/half court squad that pounded the boards with 90% of the offense being funneled through three players, none of whom were big men. This year things will be different, life will be better for a big man who can run the court like MIles can.
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Plumlee spent his summer as a counselor at the Adidas Nations camp, a honor normally reserved for the top college players. He also competed in the NC Pro Am and played hard at all times despite being stuck on a middling team and carrying a heavy minutes load.
Last year he accepted his role as back up big man when it came time to rest the seniors, this year he’s going to be a starter with two potential All-Americans and the top incoming point guard. Yes, life is very good for Miles.
Expectations: 22-25 minutes per game, 8-10 points per game, 7-9 rebounds per game, 1 block per game, 2 all-Plumlee chest bumps per game
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Singler & Smith Named Captain. Who Will Follow?
This past Tuesday, seniors Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith were named co-captains of the 2010-11 Duke Blue Devils. The obvious question is will they be able to fill the void left behind by the three departing seniors. John Scheyer, Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas will always have a special place in Duke lore, and in my heart. From getting bounced in the first round by VCU as freshmen, to winning it all as seniors. If a movie were to be made about these seniors, it would be called ‘The Redemption of Zoubek’.
So, will the duo fill that void? The answer is to that question is yes. Two of the ‘Big Three’ return. Though not captains last year, they were a major part of the starting five that won a national championship. Few teams can bring back leadership like that, especially defending champs. Exodus normally occurs and teams are scrambling to replace scoring and leadership. Defending champs usually look to reload, not repeat.
Yes, Duke did get semi-lucky with Singler staying for his senior season. They were able to keep the most NBA-ready player on team that just won the National Championship. Most guys would have jumped. But that’s one of the reasons you come to Duke, to leave as a senior.
This year Duke team will have a pair of seasoned seniors leading the way, who will be pre-season All ACC, in a push for a repeat. Although Coach K doesn’t look at it like that.
“We’re not defending anything,” Coach K said. “We’re pursuing another title.”
Singler is solid season away from joining elite company in Duke history. He’s a lock for 2000 points and 1000 rebounds, making him the third Duke player with such numbers, Danny Ferry and Mike Gminski are the others. He could even climb as high as third on the scoring list at Duke with a season like last year.
Nolan Smith won’t have the same kind of increase in points per game (9 points from soph to junior), but should have similar numbers to his break out season. He will be looking to expand on last seasons success, adding to his game.
One of the biggest challenges for the captains will be preparing the current players to lead the 2011-12 team. Instead of a third player to lean on like last year, the Big Two will lead an mostly unknown qualities group of guys.
The last time Duke that had two returning seniors and a bunch of almost-theres was the 2005-06 team, JJ Redick and Sheldon Williams. Both were first team All-Americans that year and led by their dominant abilities on the floor, neither was a traditional leader in the Duke sense of the word.
After they left, there was a void. No one was really prepared for a leadership role on the 2006-07 team, and it showed. Losers of 8 of their final 12 games, they were bumped out of the ACC and NCAA Tourneys without a win in either, by NC State and Virginia Commonwealth, respectively. Duke faithful remember that year fondly. It sucked, in a very painful way.
Singler and Smith will have a bevy of guys to try to get involved and take ownership, and all coming from different routes.
Will the freshman point guard Kyrie Irving look to take over? He is the first true point guard at Duke since Jason Williams, and he will be joining an experienced back court. So, he will just have to learn to run an ACC team in time for the conference season, and not worry about leading just yet.
Can Seth Curry -the transfer from Liberty- step right in? Although he was able to practice with the team all last year, he couldn’t play with them in game situations. How much of difference will that make?
What about the two-headed Plumlee machine? We know about the athleticism of Miles and Mason, but we only caught glimpses, like a supernova screen saver. How will they stand up to the rigors of being the main inside presence for a full season? They will have some help, freshman Joshua Hairston at 6’9″ and returning 6’10″ Ryan Kelly. They will be able to take some of the pressure off the Plumlees. Also, Duke will be able to play more three-guard sets this year, allowing Singler to slide to the four. Less minutes all around for the Duke big men.
So this years team will be Singler & Smith’s team. Will they be able to get to Houston? Lets hope so. We can worry about the 2011-12 team next year.
