Will Duke Be Able To ‘Flip The Switch?’
Entering the ACC Tournament Duke has dropped 2 of its last 3 games, both on the road. One to a team playing for its NCAA life, the other to the hottest team in the ACC. Dropping two of the last three is not the way anyone wants to head into their conference tournament.
The recent losses have worried some Duke fans. Like me.
Some people think that Duke has yet to play its best ball. I beg to differ. I think they are past playing their best ball. They haven’t really made any progress on the offensive end in the past few games. They’ve been static and don’t seem to have the same toughness they did last year.
Right now, teams need to be playing better than they did the game before, or at least show some signs or growth. Last year, that was true of the Duke Blue Devils. Not this year. Yes, they have senior leadership, but so did the 2005-06 team and look what happened to them.
There are similarities with this years team and that team, which was led by seniors JJ Redick & Shelden Williams. That team hit their peak too early, lost a couple of games late in the season. They were able to rebound and win the ACC Tournament, but then they were bounced by LSU in the Sweet Sixteen because they did not have enough scoring options.
Every game (save the Georgia Tech game) since the first UNC game has been pretty much the same. Let Nolan Smith drive the ball into the lane, maybe he’ll shoot, maybe he’ll look for someone on the perimeter. That’s about it. Sometimes Kyle SIngler will get the ball, run around a screen and take a shot.
There doesn’t seem to be an effort to get the big men involved in the offense. Unlike last year, Duke does not have three guys to take care of the scoring game-in and game-out. During last years’ run, Duke could afford to have Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas do nothing but rebound and play defense because Jon Scheyer was out on the perimeter with Smith & Singler.
This years team does not have that luxury. Smith and Singler will get their 40 points a game, but there is no consistent third scorer to help them out. Seth Curry has been the ‘third option’ most often, but he’s disappeared almost as frequently (Virginia Tech anyone?). Andre Dawkins has been more cold than hot recently. Ryan Kelly has all but vanished and the Plumlee’s can each play good games, but never at the same time.
All of these factors give me a sick feeling that, one, this team will not be able to win the ACC Tournament; and two, that getting knocked out in the Sweet 16 is more likely than a trip to Houston.
It would be nice if they come out and flip a switch in the ACC Tourney. They have a great opportunity to get off to a good start in their first game against either NC State or Maryland, they’ve beat both teams twice this season. After that they will most likely play either Florida State or Virginia Tech, two teams who have shown the ability to beat the Blue Devils this season.
I know that Coach K is a Hall-of-Fame coach and Duke has won 9 of the past 12 ACC Tournaments, but its not as easy as ‘flipping a switch’ once the post season starts. There needs to be growth, signs that something is happening and people are growing into their roles.
I am not seeing that right now and it has me worried. I hope I am wrong and that Duke will be able to turn in on, win the ACC Tournament. If that happens, I will gladly eat crow.
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Duke Looks To Repeat, But…
Weren’t we here last year?
The similarities between this years team and last years team run deep.
A Duke Blue Devil team trying to figure out exactly who they are.
A struggling Kyle Singler.
A Duke guard on the road to becoming ACC Player of the Year.
Big men who look to rebound first, get the ball back to the perimeter shooters second and score third.
The borderline 1-slash-2 seed.
The embarrassing loss to a Big East team.
The most recent victory over a non-ACC team.
26-2 this year, 24-4 last year.
So does that mean a loss at Virginia Tech is on the horizon, just like last when they lost at Maryland? Could senior Malcolm Delaney pull a Greivis Vasquez and will his team to victory over Duke? It’s a game that Virginia Tech needs to win to solidify their post season resume, so you know they will come out all guns blazing.
There is one glaring difference between this years team and last. And, no, its not Zoubek’s epic beard.
The big difference is last year Duke was led by ‘The Big Three’, this year its been ‘The Big Two’. Just like in math, three is better than two. Three is safer than two as well. How many two-legged stools have you ever sat on? Ones that you bought at IKEA don’t count, those Swedes know how to defy gravity.
This year, the ‘Big Two’ has morphed into the ‘Big One-and-Three-Quarters’. Nolan Smith has been even better than anyone could have hoped, but Singler has hardly played up to his preseason predictions and that ‘third scorer’ that every teams needs, has yet to fully emerge.
Right now, that third scorer role is being filled by Seth Curry, but at different times this year its been Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly and even Mason Plumlee. Curry has proven to be able to come up big in big games (UNC) and has the best overall game for being Duke’s ‘third scorer’, he can spot up or drive to the hoop. It was nice to see Curry come up big in a tough game because Duke is going to need a game like that from one of those guys to make it to Houston.
Without a true third scorer, this years team reminds me of the 2005-06 team. A team with two outstanding players (Redick & Williams) and a bunch of other guys who could score in double digits [Freshmen Josh McRoberts & Greg Paulus; Sophomore DeMarcus Nelson; Seniors Sean Dockery & Lee Melchionni], but didn’t do it often enough to be called a ‘third scorer.’
Those other guys combined for 35.3 points in 2005-06. This year, those other guys [Curry, Dawkins, Kelly & both Plumlees] combine for 36.5.
You remember that team, don’t you? Number one for the majority of the season, but you were never really comfortable with them, at least I wasn’t. I felt they were over rated for the entire season, but when you start 17-0 and 27-1, its tough not to stay in the top 3 all season. Then, in the Sweet 16 against LSU, when Redick shot 3-of-18 (11 points), Duke needed that third scorer to avoid losing to an inferior team. They didn’t get it, McRoberts had 9, Paulus has 7, Nelson had 4.
Last year Duke could absorb a bad game by one of the Big Three, even during the tournament run. Singler was 0-10 from the floor versus Baylor in the Elite 8 and Duke still able to win behind a career game from Smith and advance.
This year they would be hard pressed to win such a game, in fact, they were. In the UNC game, Singler was held in check and it took an all-world effort from Nolan Smith and a huge game from Curry. They scored over 70% of Duke’s points that game, that is not something they can count for any stretch of time.
The one thing that Duke hasn’t had to deal with since Kyrie Irving went out also happens to be every Duke fans worst nightmare.
Nolan Smith having a bad game.
Right now, I don’t think that Duke would be able to win a game where Smith has a bad game. Singler would step up, but who else would be there to carry the load for the Blue Devils?
And that is the big difference between this year and last. And why 3 is always better than 2.
Duke Bigs Grow Against NC State
The past two games have seen an improvement inside for the Duke Blue Devils as the three big men are getting more comfortable in their roles; as rebounders and occasional scorers.
At the beginning of the season everyone, myself included, were expecting huge offensive numbers from the trio of Miles & Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly, when they didn’t materialize we started questioning what was wrong with them.
In fact, nothing is wrong with them. We just didn’t give them a chance.
Should we really have expected double-doubles from three guys who have barely played a full season between them? None of them had been asked to be any part of the offense last season, and now we want them to call for the ball down low and have the offense run through them? Not gonna happen.
Last season the Plumlees playing time was mostly as second stringers behind Brian Zoubek & Lance Thomas and Kelly’s time was non-existant (he had just 6 points in ACC play). How could we in our right mind expect anything more than a year of struggles from these guys? Plus, you have two All-Americans and the number one freshman point guard on your team. How many touches would you give to a trio of untested big men? About as many as I get per game.
Not being called upon to score last year has slowed their progress this season as they look for ways to get involved in the offense. They are getting there. They are taking -and making- more shots in recent games.
The win against NC State was the best collective game for the big men this season. 29 points (11-of-16), 26 rebounds, eight blocks and just four fouls. Without them Duke wouldn’t have won last night’s game.
It was Miles who played best, escaping Coach Ks doghouse. He scored 11 points and had eight rebounds, including a couple of big offensive rebounds and baskets in the second half after NC State cut the lead to five. Clearly his recent time on the pine (just 10 minutes in his last two games) lit a fire under the junior.
Kelly added the same (11 & 
including 2-of-2 three-pointers, Mason led the team with 10 rebounds and six blocks and all three big men contributed to NC State shooting 22% in the first half, allowing Duke to build a 14 point lead. They also helped Duke out rebound NC State by 10, who were the ACC leaders in rebounding margin coming into the game.
Should we think that a renaissance has begun in Durham because of the big man play in the past two games? No.
Will there be some setbacks? Of course.
Will they continue to evolve into their roles? Yes.
If they find their roles like last years bigs no one if going to care what their numbers are if there is a fifth banner in the rafters of Cameron Indoor.
Duke Rebounds Against Virginia
You know what I would like to see?
I want to see a current Duke big man go back up strong to the hoop.
Don’t bring the ball down and pump fake. That results in a missed lay-up or having the ball stripped from you. Be strong.
Also, how about a Duke big man pulling down a rebound, clearing some space by swinging his elbows and screaming. Possibly with a beard.
That’s what I’d like to see.
That aggressiveness and passion is what has been missing from this years team, especially inside.
But remember, the Duke Blue Devils didn’t hit their championship stride until mid-February last season after they had lost to teams like Georgia Tech and NC State. They were 11 games into the ACC season when they played Maryland for the first time, the game designated as the ‘turning point’ for the 2009-2010 season.
We all think that Brian Zoubek just turned it on when he was inserted into the starting lineup against Maryland with his 16 point, 17 rebound performance. But he had been working up to that all season, as had the coaching staff. They had been figuring out what was needed to win all season, but when they did, everything seemed to click.
Right now, Duke has to learn how to play offense. Again.
Coming out of the pre-season Duke was learning an offense with a freshman as point guard. Now they have to learn a new system without the ultra-talented freshman. We’ve seen that it isn’t as simple as dropping Nolan Smith into the point guard spot and getting the same results.
They have returned to the pre-season. The first four games without Irving really didn’t prepare Duke for the ACC season as they weren’t tested. They won those games by 30+ points per game and the weaknesses in their offense weren’t really exposed.
It may take another couple of defeats, but Duke will find the offense that works for them.
Yesterday’s game against Virginia may have been the first of the stepping stones towards the new look Blue Devils.
Both Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee were a little more aggressive around the hoop. From the opening tip it was clear the plan was to get them the ball more often. Even though they combined for only 13 points and missed a couple of easy shots, they looked to score. A good sign because it signaled a step forward.
Now all I want to see is what will be the ‘turning point’ this season. Will it be the first time Kelly goes back up strong without bringing the ball down to his waist, or when Mason powers over someone for a huge put back. Maybe Miles will try that beard again.
So, let’s all be patient, the Irving-less Duke offense is still a work in progress.
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Duke Big Men Continue To Disappoint
Well, it looks like we’ve been fooled again.
As Duke fans we’ve bought into the hype that this years big men were the second coming.
We all heard that Mason Plumlee was a possible lottery pick, that Ryan Kelly made the most improvement over the summer, and, that Miles Plumlee was ready to be a big time player.
None of that has come to fruition this year, with the exception of Mason versus Marquette (25 and 12), this group of big men haven’t separated themselves from past big men. Why?
1. Our expectations are too high.
We are always looking for them to be the reincarnation of Shelden Williams or Carlos Boozer. That’s not going to happen, especially at a guard driven school like Duke. Those guys are more of the exception than the rule as shown by the fact that in the last 10 years they are the only two true big men on any Duke roster.
Duke brings in big men who are like Josh McRoberts, lots of potential, high basketball IQ and athletic, rather than strong. Right now Duke has three of those big men, there is not a Boozer among them.
2. We expect a fully developed big man to emerge like Venus from the sea. [I want to apologize for the image or Miles' head on the Botticelli Venus.]
Big men tend to develop slower than guards. How long did it take Lance Thomas to develop that 15 footer from the baseline? Four years. Could a sophomore Brian Zoubek been the ultimate x-factor on last years team? No.
Zoubek and Thomas had been growing into and learning their roles for four years when they blossomed last year, helping the team win a National Championship. Something that seemed unfathomable when they stepped on campus four years earlier.
Both Miles and Kelly are four-year players and with his less than stellar start, Mason’s stock has dropped enough that he will most likely be returning for his junior season. Good for Duke, bad for everyone else. Next year they will have three upperclass big men and three Plumlees.
3. Their games are far from being well-rounded.
Neither Plumlee has a reliable shot outside of 12 feet and aren’t rebounding machines, but get them out in the break or give them an opening to the basket and they are nearly unstoppable. Kelly has the three-point shot, but that’s about it, as he is neither as strong or quick as either Plumlee.
All three of them are good on the defensive end, but only in swarms. None of them are going to be left alone under the basket like Shelden Williams. They need to attack in gangs, many of their blocked shots and steals come from the weak-side.
None of these guys are strong enough to play with their backs to the basket and manhandle their way inside. Without an arsenal of offensive moves their touches are going to be limited, which will keep their scoring stats low. If there was a stat that tracked how many screens they set that led to open threes, they would be leading the nation as a group.
4. Most teams play a defense to stop Duke from running.
Why? It’s obvious. Duke has multiple options when they run the break. They have athletic big men who can get down court and into great position for easy shots AND great shooters who can find the open spaces. No one wants to give Duke that many options on the break, so they defend against the break.
Since they can’t run, they can’t their big men as involved in the offense as they would like. Duke is forced to run a half court offense and they use the big men as screeners or passers, not as scorers. There are only a few plays in Coach K’s book for big men and when you have an All-American at guard and small forward, how many looks are the big men going to get.
So, there you have it. As fans we can’t expect the big men to act like people they are not. The Plumlees and Kelly are not, and will never be, Carlos Boozer, or even Brian Zoubek. Right now, none of the three are strong enough (or well-rounded enough) to be the dominating big man we were expecting and it doesn’t look like that transformation is going to happen this season.
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