Coach K Set To Retire…
… in 7-10 years.
But before that happens lets concentrate on how next season will start.
900 wins.
That’s the number of wins that Coach K will have when next season starts. After tieing, then passing his mentor Bobby Knight in the first two weeks of the season, every game after that he’ll be extending his own record.
So, the next question becomes, where does he stop?
What future number is going to be the new gold standard for Division 1 Men’s basketball coaches?
Before that number is set, lets get a look at some of the other milestones that Coach K will hit.
The obvious one is 1000.
1000 wins is a huge number, but it won’t happen until the 2014-15 season, unless Duke averages 34 wins over the next three seasons and Coach K hits 1000 during the 2014 NCAA Tournament. Something that seems very unlikely.
In case you’re wondering, Coach K has won 100 games over three consecutive seasons just once in his in his career. Between the 98-99 and 00-01 seasons Duke won 101 games.
[My predictions are based on the guess that Coach K will average 28 wins going forward. Here's how I came up with the number. Over the course of his 31 seasons at Duke, Coach K has averaged 26.6 wins per season, over the last 10, he's averaged 29.4 wins. 28 is somewhere in between, so I decided to go with that number.]
If the 28 wins per season is accurate, then Coach K will hit 1000 wins sometime halfway through the 2014-15 season. Late January/early February during the ACC season seems like a good time for 1000, so make your travel plans now.
The next major milestone would be win 1073, which would give him 1000 wins at Duke.
If you use the 28 wins/season as a guideline, win 1073 will occur during the 2017-18 season. Like win 1000, it would most likely occur during the ACC season, this time early-to-mid January.
Coach K will tell you that all those numbers are nice, but the real number he is concentrating on is 5. As in National Championships.
Number 5 would put him second alone, behind only John Wooden (who Coach K wouldn’t catch even if he stayed 70 years at Duke) and cement his face onto the Mount Rushmore of Men’s College coaches.
Another milestone within reach is 100.
100 NCAA Tournament victories.
Right now he is at 79, in 27 NCAA Tournaments. That’s a shade less that 3 NCAA wins per NCAA trip. Over the last 10 years, he’s won 22 games. So, between his past 10 years and overall average, he might hit 100 NCAA victories in 2019 or 2020.
Of course, all these numbers depend on the health of Coach K and how long he decides to coach. He turned 64 back in February and I hope he’s got 9 more seasons in him, that would give him an even 40 at Duke and he’d be 73 when he retired.
Lets take a look at the ages of other great coaches when they retired. Bob Knight retired at 67, John Wooden retired at 65, Dean Smith was 66, Eddie Sutton was 72 and Lute Olsen was 74.
We can see that coaching until the age of 73 isn’t out of the question, but it may be unlikely. Coach K is in good health, he’s only had one major injury during his coaching career (in 1994-95), but still, coaching into the mid-70s is not out of the question.
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Five Most Memorable Duke Games Of 2010-11
Top 5 Most Memorable Duke Blue Devil Games Of 2010-11
1. UNC Game 3 – ACC Championship Game
After losing the final game of the regular season to UNC, which gave the ACC Regular Season Championship to the Tar Heels, Duke responded by winning the ACC Tournament for the tenth time in 13 years. Heading into the ACC Tournament is was UNC that was playing the better basketball, they had won 7 straight and 12-of-13. Duke had lost 2-of-3 and had gone from a sure 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament to a 2 seed in their conference tournament. The teams that played the final regular season weren’t the same teams that played in the ACC Tournament. It was Carolina that came out flat, needing a pair of huge comebacks wins just to get to the ACC Finals, despite being the 1 seed. Duke rolled into the Finals with a pair of double-digit wins, including one over a Virginia Tech team that had defeated Duke two weeks previous. It had been almost a decade since the Blue Devils faced the Tar Heels in the ACC Finals and this one was over by the half. Duke jumped out to an 8-0 start and had the lead as high as 18 before the half ended. Carolina got as close a 9 in the second half, but Duke put any thoughts of a third comeback away with a 10-2 run. It was a complete reversal from the game just one week ago and gave Duke fans a much better feeling heading into the NCAAs.
2. 900 – 3rd Round Game v Michigan
It ended up being the biggest individual milestone for Coach K in the season. Yes, he also passed a pair of coaching legends this season (Dean Smith & Adolph Rupp), but 900 is a special number. Its a number only two coaches have reached. With the lose to Arizona in the next game it ensured that Coach K will break the record some time in mid- to late-November, at home, in front of a raucous crowd and really there is nothing better.
3. UNC Game 1
Down by 14 points at half, Duke outscored the Tar Heels 50 to 30 in the second half to win the first meeting of the season. It had been 10 days since the blow out by St. John’s and this game was heading in the same direction, but the Blue Devils had something in their favor. The Cameron Crazies. The crowd was into the game the entire time, even when Duke was getting blown off their own floor. The building was electric and you could sense the sway they held over the game, even through the television. I wasn’t the only one to feel it. ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt talked about the crowd and how he felt that the Crazies were worth 6-8 points that game and willed Duke back into the game in the second half. I couldn’t agree more. I have never heard, or seen, Cameron as alive and electric as I did that night. The Crazies won that game that night for Duke.
4. ACC/Big 10 Challenge v Michigan State
In what was supposed to be an early season match up between two Top 10 teams turned into Kyrie Irving’s coming out party. Although Michigan State would eventually fall by the wayside in the season, this was an big time matchup for Duke and the biggest threat to the Blue Devil’s non-conference home win streak, which would eventually be stretched to 86 games at the end of the season. He became the fourth Duke freshman to score 30 or more points in a game and showed the nation just why he was being talked about as a lottery pick and number one overall pick in the NBA draft. It was also his biggest splash as a Duke player in his short time.
(tie) 5. Kyrie’s First Out & Kyrie’s First Back – Bradley Dec 8 & 2nd Round Game v Hampton
The first game after Kyrie Irving went out might not be the most memorable game of the season, but it may end up being one of the most important games. For next season. Had Irving not been injured for the majority of the season, then Duke would be heading into next season with a pair of point guards who never played a minute of ACC ball. As it stands, the toe injury is the only reason that Tyler Thornton didn’t spend the season sitting at the end of the bench. The game against Bradley displayed the look that Duke would use for the rest of the season. Nolan Smith handling the ball and running the offense. With Irving in the lineup, Smith probably wouldn’t have been a Player of the Year Candidate or ACC Player of the Year.
Irving’s first game back was nothing more than a chance to get his feet wet against Hampton. He came off the bench and led the team with 14 points in just 20 minutes. It wasn’t his play that made this game memorable, it was his appearance. Duke fans held out hope that Irving would return, but it was always with guarded optimism. It all happened so quick, on the court Sunday in street clothes, announcement was made on Tuesday, off the bench on Friday. In the end his return didn’t bring the results that Duke fans wanted, but we were able to see him in a Duke uniform three last times before he moved on to the next level.
Duke Predictions – Fulfilled (Sort Of)
I made predictions at the beginning of the season, lets see how I did. You can go back in the archives and check in case you think I changed my answers.
Prediction: Regular season 26-4
Actual: 27-4, somehow I missed a game, don’t know how, but I did get the number of losses correct, so that needs to count for something.
Prediction: ACC Regular season champions at 14-2
Actual: 2nd place ACC regular season at 13-3 (close)
Prediction: ACC Tournament Champs
Actual: ACC Tournament Champs (ding!)
Prediction: Number one seed in the East with a 29-4 record
Actual: Number one seed in the West with a 30-4 record, again, missed game
Prediction: Duke’s win in its Sweet Sixteen game will give Coach K his 900th career victory and an 80th NCAA tourney victory
Actual: Since I missed a game, his 900th win put him in the Sweet 16
Prediction: He will be at 901 career wins when they head to Houston for the Final Four
Actual: They will not be going to Houston (sad)
Prediction: Once in Houston, anything can happen, so I won’t make any predictions beyond getting to the Final Four
Actual: Butler over UConn
So, as you can see, I wasn’t off by much. Still not sure how I missed a game, but the number of losses was correct. I have a feeling next season will be a little harder to predict.
Best Conference? ACC. Biggest Joke? Big East.
So how is that ‘Big East is the best conference’ working out for them now?
Another question. Which conference has the most teams remaining in the Sweet 16?
Oh, that’s right, the ACC. They are 7-1 so far this year in the Tournament. The only other locale that could claim its having a better tournament would be the city of Richmond, which is 5-0. Both Richmond and VCU have rolled into the Sweet 16, with VCU winning 3 games in 5 days.
Of the three ACC teams, Florida State looked the best in their Round of 32 game, crushing #2 seed Notre Dame, the runners-up of the Big East. Both UNC and Duke struggled to play a full 40 minute game, but both escaped with wins.
We’ve all heard that it was a down year for the ACC. Sure, maybe it was, but why didn’t we hear about the other conferences that were down.
PAC 10? Only the Conference Champion Arizona is left and their win over Texas was their first over a Top 25 team all season. SEC West. No teams in the NCAAs. Aren’t these conferences part of the Big 6 as well? Why aren’t we talking about them being down?
What about all those mid-majors who had been tourney darlings in years past?
MVC? One team (Indiana St), gone. Horizon? Butler was the only team in and they are still around, beating a Big East team. WCC? One team (Gonzaga), gone.
So, if all those other conferences were down, doesn’t that mean the Big East was the best conference in a down year across the board? Some one had to be in the Top 25, why not all those teams from one conference. There is always a cry of East Coast bias and it seems that this was true this year, as well as a Big 6 bias.
The top of Big East did have some help since they were beating up on the bottom five teams in the Big East, which were exceptionally bad. Those five teams (Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence, South Florida, DePaul) were a combined 20-70 in the Big East and 5-43 vs the Top 25.
That means each of those 11 Big East teams that made the NCAAs added roughly 5 wins by beating up on the bottom of the conference. That’s a nice way to pad your win total.
Big East defenders will say that the teams were tired because they had been beating up on themselves for the entire season. Really? Explain UConn. One of the two Big East teams remaining, they had to play 5 games in 5 days a week ago in a mockery that is called the Big East Tournament. Sixteen teams, double byes, a chance that a team would have to play 5 games in 5 days?
It might take place at Madison Square Garden, but that doesn’t mean its any better than any other tournament. Five rounds is too many and it needs to be changed, don’t invite all 16 teams or shrink the size of your conference.
I’ve always thought that the amount of teams you have remaining in the Sweet 16 is a better indicator of how good the conference is, even before this season helped to make this point for me. Teams that make it this far have had to win 2 (and now, this year, 3) games to make it to the second weekend.
Sixteen teams is a large enough sample of the best teams in the country for you to make a decision on which conference is the best.
This year its clear. Its the ACC.
Coach K Not Optimistic About Irving Return
Step one is complete. The cast is off and the toe is free, sort of.
Next up is a CT scan and an MRI in about two weeks.
That means a minimum of two weeks BEFORE he can even start rehab and therapy.
With an absolute minimum of two weeks in rehab that means its the ACC Tournament before he can return and that is if everything goes perfectly. It’s probably going to be more like four-to-six weeks in rehab. Then, he’s not even going to be 100% after that short time. He hasn’t been able to work on anything below the knee in two months and his endurance isn’t going to be where it needs to be.
The reality of the fact is that Irving will not play again this season for Duke. There just isn’t enough time for him to get rehabbed before the season ends. It’s not the toe that is going to keep him from returning this season, it’s the calendar.
And then there is Coach K’s statement.
“We still feel he’s not going to play and we have to go forward with that,” Krzyzewski said. “Just because you’re out of a cast, you have to be 100 percent before you come back, and he’s a ways from that. It’s progressing well for his career. It’s being done the right way and he’s got to be honest with us about how he’s doing.”
So, we will have to have to accept that Kyrie Irving will not play any more for Duke this season. The question that remains is will he be back for next season.
Everyone wants that, for Irving to return and for Duke to have a back court containing him and Austin Rivers.
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